IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/compst/v37y2022i3d10.1007_s00180-021-01149-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Kolmogorov–Smirnov simultaneous confidence bands for time series distribution function

Author

Listed:
  • Jie Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Jiangyan Wang

    (Nanjing Audit University)

  • Lijian Yang

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

Claims about distributions of time series are often unproven assertions instead of substantiated conclusions for lack of hypotheses testing tools. In this work, Kolmogorov–Smirnov type simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) are constructed based on simple random samples (SRSs) drawn from realizations of time series, together with smooth SCBs using kernel distribution estimator (KDE) instead of empirical cumulative distribution function of the SRS. All SCBs are shown to enjoy the same limiting distribution as the standard Kolmogorov–Smirnov for i.i.d. sample, which is validated in simulation experiments on various time series. Computing these SCBs for the standardized S&P 500 daily returns data leads to some rather unexpected findings, i.e., student’s t-distributions with degrees of freedom no less than 3 and the normal distribution are all acceptable versions of the standardized daily returns series’ distribution, with proper rescaling. These findings present challenges to the long held belief that daily financial returns distribution is fat-tailed and leptokurtic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Li & Jiangyan Wang & Lijian Yang, 2022. "Kolmogorov–Smirnov simultaneous confidence bands for time series distribution function," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 1015-1039, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:37:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01149-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-021-01149-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00180-021-01149-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00180-021-01149-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rong Liu & Lijian Yang, 2008. "Kernel estimation of multivariate cumulative distribution function," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 661-677.
    2. Hervé Cardot & Etienne Josserand, 2011. "Horvitz--Thompson estimators for functional data: asymptotic confidence bands and optimal allocation for stratified sampling," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 107-118.
    3. Juanjuan Kong & Lijie Gu & Lijian Yang, 2018. "Prediction Interval for Autoregressive Time Series via Oracally Efficient Estimation of Multi‐Step‐Ahead Innovation Distribution Function," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 690-708, September.
    4. Qiongxia Song & Lijian Yang, 2009. "Spline confidence bands for variance functions," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 589-609.
    5. Shuzhuan Zheng & Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2016. "Statistical inference for generalized additive models: simultaneous confidence corridors and variable selection," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(4), pages 607-626, December.
    6. Li Cai & Lijian Yang, 2015. "A smooth simultaneous confidence band for conditional variance function," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 632-655, September.
    7. Lijie Gu & Li Wang & Wolfgang Härdle & Lijian Yang, 2014. "A simultaneous confidence corridor for varying coefficient regression with sparse functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 806-843, December.
    8. Guanqun Cao & Lijian Yang & David Todem, 2012. "Simultaneous inference for the mean function based on dense functional data," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 359-377.
    9. Shuzhuan Zheng & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2014. "A Smooth Simultaneous Confidence Corridor for the Mean of Sparse Functional Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 661-673, June.
    10. Jiangyan Wang & Suojin Wang & Lijian Yang, 2016. "Simultaneous confidence bands for the distribution function of a finite population and of its superpopulation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(4), pages 692-709, December.
    11. Q. Song & R. Liu & Q. Shao & L. Yang, 2014. "A Simultaneous Confidence Band for Dense Longitudinal Regression," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 5195-5210, December.
    12. Lan Xue & Jing Wang, 2010. "Distribution function estimation by constrained polynomial spline regression," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 443-457.
    13. Yuanyuan Zhang & Lijian Yang, 2018. "A smooth simultaneous confidence band for correlation curve," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 247-269, June.
    14. Yuanyuan Zhang & Rong Liu & Qin Shao & Lijian Yang, 2020. "Two‐Step Estimation for Time Varying Arch Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 551-570, July.
    15. Jiangyan Wang & Fuxia Cheng & Lijian Yang, 2013. "Smooth simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative distribution functions," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 395-407, June.
    16. Qin Shao & Lijian Yang, 2017. "Oracally efficient estimation and consistent model selection for auto-regressive moving average time series with trend," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 79(2), pages 507-524, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lijie Gu & Suojin Wang & Lijian Yang, 2019. "Simultaneous confidence bands for the distribution function of a finite population in stratified sampling," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(4), pages 983-1005, August.
    2. Jiangyan Wang & Suojin Wang & Lijian Yang, 2016. "Simultaneous confidence bands for the distribution function of a finite population and of its superpopulation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(4), pages 692-709, December.
    3. Gu, Lijie & Wang, Suojin & Yang, Lijian, 2021. "Smooth simultaneous confidence band for the error distribution function in nonparametric regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Yuanyuan Zhang & Lijian Yang, 2018. "A smooth simultaneous confidence band for correlation curve," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 247-269, June.
    5. Wang, Jiangyan & Gu, Lijie & Yang, Lijian, 2022. "Oracle-efficient estimation for functional data error distribution with simultaneous confidence band," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Chen Zhong & Lijian Yang, 2021. "Simultaneous confidence bands for comparing variance functions of two samples based on deterministic designs," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 1197-1218, June.
    7. Li Cai & Lisha Li & Simin Huang & Liang Ma & Lijian Yang, 2020. "Oracally efficient estimation for dense functional data with holiday effects," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 29(1), pages 282-306, March.
    8. Li Cai & Lijie Gu & Qihua Wang & Suojin Wang, 2021. "Simultaneous confidence bands for nonparametric regression with missing covariate data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(6), pages 1249-1279, December.
    9. Zhong, Chen, 2024. "Oracle-efficient estimation and trend inference in non-stationary time series with trend and heteroscedastic ARMA error," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Cao, Guanqun & Wang, Li, 2018. "Simultaneous inference for the mean of repeated functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 279-295.
    11. Kun Huang & Sijie Zheng & Lijian Yang, 2022. "Inference for dependent error functional data with application to event-related potentials," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(4), pages 1100-1120, December.
    12. Yueying Wang & Guannan Wang & Li Wang & R. Todd Ogden, 2020. "Simultaneous confidence corridors for mean functions in functional data analysis of imaging data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 427-437, June.
    13. Shuzhuan Zheng & Rong Liu & Lijian Yang & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2016. "Statistical inference for generalized additive models: simultaneous confidence corridors and variable selection," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(4), pages 607-626, December.
    14. Li Cai & Suojin Wang, 2021. "Global statistical inference for the difference between two regression mean curves with covariates possibly partially missing," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2573-2602, December.
    15. Italo R. Lima & Guanqun Cao & Nedret Billor, 2019. "M-based simultaneous inference for the mean function of functional data," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 71(3), pages 577-598, June.
    16. Catalina Bolancé & Carlos Alberto Acuña, 2021. "A New Kernel Estimator of Copulas Based on Beta Quantile Transformations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-16, May.
    17. Li Cai & Lijian Yang, 2015. "A smooth simultaneous confidence band for conditional variance function," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 632-655, September.
    18. Yanchun Jin, 2016. "Nonparametric tests for the effect of treatment on conditional variance," KIER Working Papers 948, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Zhongqi Liang & Qihua Wang & Yuting Wei, 2022. "Robust model selection with covariables missing at random," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(3), pages 539-557, June.
    20. Eddie Anderson & Artem Prokhorov & Yajing Zhu, 2020. "A Simple Estimator of Two‐Dimensional Copulas, with Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1375-1412, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:37:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s00180-021-01149-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.