IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/compst/v28y2013i3p1195-1223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations with Markov chain Monte Carlo and non-linear Kalman filtering

Author

Listed:
  • Isambi Mbalawata
  • Simo Särkkä
  • Heikki Haario

Abstract

This paper is concerned with parameter estimation in linear and non-linear Itô type stochastic differential equations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC methods studied in this paper are the Metropolis–Hastings and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms. In these kind of models, the computation of the energy function gradient needed by HMC and gradient based optimization methods is non-trivial, and here we show how the gradient can be computed with a linear or non-linear Kalman filter-like recursion. We shall also show how in the linear case the differential equations in the gradient recursion equations can be solved using the matrix fraction decomposition. Numerical results for simulated examples are presented and discussed in detail. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Isambi Mbalawata & Simo Särkkä & Heikki Haario, 2013. "Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations with Markov chain Monte Carlo and non-linear Kalman filtering," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 1195-1223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:28:y:2013:i:3:p:1195-1223
    DOI: 10.1007/s00180-012-0352-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00180-012-0352-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00180-012-0352-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
    2. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    3. Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 1999. "Estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 373-384.
    4. Osnat Stramer & Matthew Bognar & Paul Schneider, 2010. "Bayesian Inference for Discretely Sampled Markov Processes with Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 450-480, Fall.
    5. A. S. Hurn & K. A. Lindsay & V. L. Martin, 2003. "On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 45-63, January.
    6. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-993, July.
    7. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    8. Golightly, A. & Wilkinson, D.J., 2008. "Bayesian inference for nonlinear multivariate diffusion models observed with error," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1674-1693, January.
    9. Hermann Singer, 2011. "Continuous-discrete state-space modeling of panel data with nonlinear filter algorithms," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(4), pages 375-413, December.
    10. Eraker, Bjorn, 2001. "MCMC Analysis of Diffusion Models with Application to Finance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 177-191, April.
    11. Ola Elerian, 1998. "A note on the existence of a closed form conditional transition density for the Milstein scheme," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sy-Miin Chow & Zhaohua Lu & Andrew Sherwood & Hongtu Zhu, 2016. "Fitting Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Models with Random Effects and Unknown Initial Conditions Using the Stochastic Approximation Expectation–Maximization (SAEM) Algorithm," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 81(1), pages 102-134, March.
    2. Zhao-Hua Lu & Sy-Miin Chow & Nilam Ram & Pamela M. Cole, 2019. "Zero-Inflated Regime-Switching Stochastic Differential Equation Models for Highly Unbalanced Multivariate, Multi-Subject Time-Series Data," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 84(2), pages 611-645, June.
    3. Raillon, L. & Ghiaus, C., 2018. "An efficient Bayesian experimental calibration of dynamic thermal models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 818-833.
    4. Sy-Miin Chow & Lu Ou & Arridhana Ciptadi & Emily B. Prince & Dongjun You & Michael D. Hunter & James M. Rehg & Agata Rozga & Daniel S. Messinger, 2018. "Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 83(2), pages 476-510, June.
    5. Ndanguza, Denis & Mbalawata, Isambi S. & Haario, Heikki & Tchuenche, Jean M., 2017. "Analysis of bias in an Ebola epidemic model by extended Kalman filter approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 113-129.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Teaching an old dog new tricks: Improved estimation of the parameters of SDEs by numerical solution of the Fokker-Planck equation," Stan Hurn Discussion Papers 2006-01, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    2. Stan Hurn & J.Jeisman & K.A. Lindsay, 2006. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations. Working paper #2," NCER Working Paper Series 2, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    3. A. S. Hurn & J. I. Jeisman & K. A. Lindsay, 0. "Seeing the Wood for the Trees: A Critical Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 390-455.
    4. A. Hurn & J. Jeisman & K. Lindsay, 2007. "Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks: Improved Estimation of the Parameters of Stochastic Differential Equations by Numerical Solution of the Fokker-Planck Equation," NCER Working Paper Series 9, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Yuan Shen & Dan Cornford & Manfred Opper & Cedric Archambeau, 2012. "Variational Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear diffusions," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 149-176, March.
    6. Osnat Stramer & Jun Yan, 2007. "Asymptotics of an Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation for the Transition Density of Diffusion Processes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 483-496, December.
    7. Siddhartha Chib & Michael K Pitt & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Likelihood based inference for diffusion driven models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe17, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    8. Xiao Huang, 2011. "Quasi‐maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 241-256, July.
    9. Quentin Clairon & Adeline Samson, 2020. "Optimal control for estimation in partially observed elliptic and hypoelliptic linear stochastic differential equations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 105-127, April.
    10. Mogens Bladt & Samuel Finch & Michael Sørensen, 2016. "Simulation of multivariate diffusion bridges," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(2), pages 343-369, March.
    11. Giorgos Sermaidis & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Alexandros Beskos & Paul Fearnhead, 2013. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Exact Inference for Diffusions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 40(2), pages 294-321, June.
    12. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
    13. Chiarella, Carl & Hung, Hing & T, Thuy-Duong, 2009. "The volatility structure of the fixed income market under the HJM framework: A nonlinear filtering approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2075-2088, April.
    14. Theodore Simos & Mike Tsionas, 2018. "Bayesian inference of the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process under a flow sampling scheme," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1687-1713, December.
    15. S. C. Kou & Benjamin P. Olding & Martin Lysy & Jun S. Liu, 2012. "A Multiresolution Method for Parameter Estimation of Diffusion Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(500), pages 1558-1574, December.
    16. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    17. Guay, François & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2021. "Efficient estimation and filtering for multivariate jump–diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 251-275.
    18. Erik Lindström, 2007. "Estimating parameters in diffusion processes using an approximate maximum likelihood approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 269-288, April.
    19. Czellar, Veronika & Karolyi, G. Andrew & Ronchetti, Elvezio, 2007. "Indirect robust estimation of the short-term interest rate process," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 546-563, September.
    20. Aliu, A. Hassan & Abiodun A. A. & Ipinyomi R.A., 2017. "Statistical Inference for Discretely Observed Diffusion Epidemic Models," International Journal of Mathematics Research, Conscientia Beam, vol. 6(1), pages 29-35.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:compst:v:28:y:2013:i:3:p:1195-1223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.