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Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Sultanah M. Alshammari

    (King Abdulaziz University)

  • Waleed K. Almutiry

    (Qassim University)

  • Harsha Gwalani

    (University of North Texas)

  • Saeed M. Algarni

    (Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control)

  • Kawther Saeedi

    (King Abdulaziz University)

Abstract

Since the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.

Suggested Citation

  • Sultanah M. Alshammari & Waleed K. Almutiry & Harsha Gwalani & Saeed M. Algarni & Kawther Saeedi, 2024. "Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 267-292, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:30:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10588-021-09343-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-021-09343-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phenyo E. Lekone & Bärbel F. Finkenstädt, 2006. "Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 1170-1177, December.
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