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Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016

Author

Listed:
  • Fraser Summerfield

    (St Francis Xavier University)

  • Livio Di Matteo

    (Lakehead University)

Abstract

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871–2016 using the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2024. "Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871–2016," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 18(2), pages 405-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:18:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-023-00269-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alfani, Guido & Murphy, Tommy E., 2017. "Plague and Lethal Epidemics in the Pre-Industrial World," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 314-343, March.
    2. Abadie, Alberto, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variable estimation of treatment response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 231-263, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Business cycles; Mortality; GDP fluctuations; Health shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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