IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v45y2000i1p63-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information

Author

Listed:
  • Maxx Dilley

Abstract

Since the devastating southern Africa drought of 1991/92 awareness has grown of the potential to better manage climate variability in the region through seasonal climate forecasting and monitoring of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While other factors besides ENSO affect southern Africa's climate, and climate forecasting for the region is not based exclusively on ENSO, a major El Niño beginning in 1997 captured the attention of policy-makers and the public. Awareness of drought risks associated with the 1997/98 event was greater than during previous El Niños in 1991/92 and 1994/95. Mitigation and planning efforts also began earlier, with drought early warnings widely available and being taken seriously prior to the 1997/98 agricultural season. Actions taken include issuance of guidance to the public, on-going monitoring and preparedness efforts including the development of national preparedness plans in some countries, pre-positioning of food stocks, donor coordination, and greater reliance on the private-sector for meeting regional food needs. Although 1998 regional crop production was slightly below average, a major drought did not materialize. Nonetheless the experience is likely to ultimately strengthen capacity within the region to manage climate variability over the long term. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Maxx Dilley, 2000. "Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Variability in Southern Africa: The Growing Role of Climate Information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 63-73, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:45:y:2000:i:1:p:63-73
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005636932536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1005636932536
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1005636932536?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benson, C. & Clay, E., 1998. "The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economies. A Preliminary Examination," Papers 401, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    2. Charlotte Benson & Edward Clay, 1998. "Drought and Sub-Saharan African Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 9884, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    2. Jekwu Ikeme, 2003. "Climate Change Daaptational Deficiencies in Developing Countries: the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 29-52, March.
    3. Dorosh, Paul A. & Kennedy, Adam & Torero, Máximo, 2016. "El Niño and cereal production shortfalls: Policies for resilience and food security in 2016 and beyond:," Policy briefs 978-089629-988-7, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Carla Roncoli & Christine Jost & Paul Kirshen & Moussa Sanon & Keith Ingram & Mark Woodin & Léopold Somé & Frédéric Ouattara & Bienvenue Sanfo & Ciriaque Sia & Pascal Yaka & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2009. "From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 433-460, February.
    5. Gitonga, Zachary M. & Visser, Martine & Mulwa, Chalmers, 2020. "Can climate information salvage livelihoods in arid and semiarid lands? An evaluation of access, use and impact in Namibia," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Karen O’Brien and Robin Leichenko, 2007. "Human Security, Vulnerability and Sustainable Adaptation," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-09, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    7. Osgood, Daniel E. & Suarez, Pablo & Hansen, James & Carriquiry, Miguel & Mishra, Ashok, 2008. "Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4651, The World Bank.
    8. Aondover Tarhule & Ming-ko Woo, 2002. "Adaptations to the dynamics of rural water supply from natural sources: A village example in semi-arid Nigeria," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 215-237, September.
    9. Carla Roncoli & Benjamin Orlove & Merit Kabugo & Milton Waiswa, 2011. "Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(1), pages 123-138, February.
    10. Sietz, Diana & Boschutz, Maria & Klein, Richard JT & Lotsch, Alexander, 2008. "Mainstreaming climate adaptation into development assistance in Mozambique: Institutional barriers and opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4711, The World Bank.
    11. Robin Leichenko & Karen O'Brien, 2002. "The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global Change: The Case of southern Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, March.
    12. N. Marshall & I. Gordon & A. Ash, 2011. "The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 511-529, August.
    13. Anton Vrieling & Kirsten Beurs & Molly Brown, 2011. "Variability of African farming systems from phenological analysis of NDVI time series," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 455-477, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniela Salite, 2019. "Explaining the uncertainty: understanding small-scale farmers’ cultural beliefs and reasoning of drought causes in Gaza Province, Southern Mozambique," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 36(3), pages 427-441, September.
    2. Freire-González, Jaume & Decker, Christopher & Hall, Jim W., 2017. "The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 196-204.
    3. Md. Kamruzzaman & Md. Enamul Kabir & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan & Quamrul Hasan Mazumder & M. Sayedur Rahman, 2018. "Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 569-588, April.
    4. Fhumulani Mathivha & Caston Sigauke & Hector Chikoore & John Odiyo, 2020. "Short-Term and Medium-Term Drought Forecasting Using Generalized Additive Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Ramon Lopez & Vinod Thomas & Pablo Troncoso, 2016. "Economic growth, natural disasters and climate change: New empirical estimates," Working Papers wp434, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    6. Okuyama, Yasuhide & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4963, The World Bank.
    7. Alex Bowen & Sarah Cochrane & Samuel Fankhauser, 2012. "Climate change, adaptation and economic growth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 95-106, July.
    8. Lim, Sokchea & Morshed, A.K.M. Mahbub, 2015. "International migration, migrant stock, and remittances: Reexamining the motivations to remit," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-115.
    9. Cobbing, Jude & Hiller, Bradley, 2019. "Waking a sleeping giant: Realizing the potential of groundwater in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 597-613.
    10. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    11. Nadia Benali and Kais Saidi, 2017. "A Robust Analysis of the Relationship between Natural Disasters, Electricity and Economic Growth in 41 Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 89-109, September.
    12. Guilherme Lichand & Anandi Mani, 2020. "Cognitive droughts," ECON - Working Papers 341, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    13. Abera Demeke & Alwin Keil & Manfred Zeller, 2011. "Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 185-206, September.
    14. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    15. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Who gets the goods? A general equilibrium perspective on food aid in Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 107-119, April.
    16. Mohammad Zaved Kaiser Khan & Ataur Rahman & Mohammad Azizur Rahman & André M. N. Renzaho, 2021. "Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2211-2224, September.
    17. Maxwell, Simon, 1998. "Saucy with the Gods: nutrition and food security speak to poverty," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 215-230, November.
    18. Charvériat, Céline, 2000. "Natural Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Overview of Risk," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1804, Inter-American Development Bank.
    19. Paul J. Burke & Andrew Leigh, 2010. "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 124-157, October.
    20. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:45:y:2000:i:1:p:63-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.