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Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Zaved Kaiser Khan

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Ataur Rahman

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Mohammad Azizur Rahman

    (Western Sydney University)

  • André M. N. Renzaho

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Natural hazards like floods and droughts affect many aspects of life. The study in particular examined the impacts of droughts on under-five mortality rate in Southern Africa, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) and literacy rate. Despite drought and child mortality being key public health concerns in Southern Africa over the past few decades, there have hardly been any studies examining the relationships between them. The study used publicly available data from 1980 to 2012. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-monthly time scales for ten southern African countries. The wetter and drier states are represented by positive and negative SPI values, respectively. SPI, GDP, and literacy rate were considered for predicting child mortality rate using both Multiple Linear Regression techniques and nonlinear methods (Generalized Additive Model), on a leave-one-year-out cross validation approach for model evaluation. Child mortality increased as the drought worsened for five countries in this region, namely Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zambia. We found that child mortality can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy using three predictor variables—drought index, GDP and literacy rate. Statistical modelling based on early warning system can complement regional capacities for drought response systems to increase child survival rate in drought-prone areas

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Zaved Kaiser Khan & Ataur Rahman & Mohammad Azizur Rahman & André M. N. Renzaho, 2021. "Impact of droughts on child mortality: a case study in Southern African countries," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2211-2224, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:108:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04776-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04776-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mahin Al Nahian, 2023. "Public Health Impact and Health System Preparedness within a Changing Climate in Bangladesh: A Scoping Review," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, January.

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