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Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Kamruzzaman

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Md. Enamul Kabir

    (University of Southern Queensland)

  • A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • Quamrul Hasan Mazumder

    (University of Rajshahi)

  • M. Sayedur Rahman

    (University of Rajshahi)

Abstract

The aim of the study is to assess the agricultural drought risk condition in the context of global climate change in the western part of Bangladesh that covers about 45% area of the country for the period of 1960–2011. Drought Index (DI) and Drought Hazard Index (DHI) have been calculated by Markov Chain analysis and that of Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) from socioeconomic and physical indicators. The DI values show that the northern part in general is more drought-prone, having less crops prospect, whereas the southern part is less drought-prone with high crop potentiality. The probability of extreme drought occurrence increases in recent decades in some parts as a result the drought events become more frequent in the areas. The DHI ranges from 15 to 32, and northern part suffers from more extreme drought hazards than that of southern part. DVI also indicates that northern part is exposed to high to very high drought vulnerability as higher percentage of illiterate people are involved in agricultural practices and high percentage of irrigation to cultivable land, but southern part exposed to moderate to low vulnerability because of low values of vulnerability indicators. Finally, agricultural drought exists at high risk condition in northern part and low in southern parts and 21.63, 26.54 and 29.68% of the area poses very high, high and moderate risk, respectively. So, immediate adaptation measures are needed keeping in mind climate features like rainfall and temperature variability, drought risk and risk ranking to make viable adaptation measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Kamruzzaman & Md. Enamul Kabir & A. T. M. Sakiur Rahman & Chowdhury Sarwar Jahan & Quamrul Hasan Mazumder & M. Sayedur Rahman, 2018. "Modeling of agricultural drought risk pattern using Markov chain and GIS in the western part of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 569-588, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:20:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9898-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-016-9898-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dey, Madan Mohan & Norton, George W., 1992. "Rice Research Priorities In Bangladesh: A Quantitative Analysis," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Benson, C. & Clay, E., 1998. "The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan African Economies. A Preliminary Examination," Papers 401, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    3. Charlotte Benson & Edward Clay, 1998. "Drought and Sub-Saharan African Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 9884, The World Bank Group.
    4. Keiko Ikeda, 1995. "Gender Differences in Human Loss and Vulnerability in Natural Disasters: A Case Study from Bangladesh," Indian Journal of Gender Studies, Centre for Women's Development Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 171-193, September.
    5. Shamsuddin Shahid & Houshang Behrawan, 2008. "Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 391-413, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2021. "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Mwehe Mathenge & Ben G. J. S. Sonneveld & Jacqueline E. W. Broerse, 2022. "Application of GIS in Agriculture in Promoting Evidence-Informed Decision Making for Improving Agriculture Sustainability: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2022. "Changing occurrence of crop water surplus or deficit and the impact of irrigation: An analysis highlighting consequences for rice production in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    4. Roquia Salam & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Badhon Kumar Shill & G. M. Monirul Alam & Md. Hasanuzzaman & Md. Morshadul Hasan & Sobhy M. Ibrahim & Roger C. Shouse, 2021. "Nexus between vulnerability and adaptive capacity of drought-prone rural households in northern Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 509-527, March.

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