IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v178y2025i2d10.1007_s10584-024-03856-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation and future projection of compound extreme events in China using CMIP6 models

Author

Listed:
  • Yuxin Liu

    (Central China Normal University
    Central China Normal University)

  • Jian Fang

    (Central China Normal University
    Central China Normal University)

  • Sha Mu

    (Central China Normal University
    Central China Normal University)

  • Yihan Zhang

    (Central China Normal University
    Central China Normal University)

  • Xiaoli Wang

    (Central China Normal University
    Central China Normal University)

  • Lili Lyu

    (CMA Institute for Development and Programme Design)

Abstract

In the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature and precipitation events are increasing. Under this scenario, an increase in compound extreme events would pose a greater risk to human society and ecosystem. However, the modelling and future projection of various types of compound events remain a great challenge. Therefore, in this study, we first evaluate the simulation performance of CMIP6 climate models for six types of compound extreme event in China in terms of spatial distribution, interannual variability and interdependence during the historical period. Based on this performance evaluation, we select the 6 best models, which are then utilized to project future changes of compound events under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the next three time periods (2015-2043, 2044-2071, and 2072-2100). The results are as follows: (1) The performance of GCMs in the simulation of extreme temperature indices is better than that for extreme precipitation indices, and positive biases exist in extreme precipitation indices for most models. (2) In the historical period, the consistency between the simulation and observation of compound extreme events show large heterogeneity for different models and different events. (3) The frequency percentage and spatial extent of compound extreme events associated with warm extremes will increase in the future, while compound extreme events associated with cold extremes, except for SP&Tn10, will show a decreasing trend. (4) Spatially, the Pr90&Tx90, Hot&Dry and Cold&Dry in the southern region will increase significantly. In the Tibetan Plateau, except for Pr90&Tn10, all other compound extreme events will have a large increase. In Northeast and North China, SP&Tx90 and Pr90&Tx90 are projected to increase. The results from this study underline how the evaluation and the future projection of compound extreme events have the potential to improve the understanding of climate model uncertainty and future risk of climate extremes, and provide a scientific basis for relevant agencies to formulate appropriate adaptation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuxin Liu & Jian Fang & Sha Mu & Yihan Zhang & Xiaoli Wang & Lili Lyu, 2025. "Evaluation and future projection of compound extreme events in China using CMIP6 models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(2), pages 1-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03856-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-024-03856-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-024-03856-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-024-03856-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tao Ji & Yanhong Yao & Yue Dou & Shejun Deng & Shijun Yu & Yunqiang Zhu & Huajun Liao, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on Urban Transportation Resilience to Compound Extreme Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-16, March.
    2. William R. L. Anderegg & Anna T. Trugman & Grayson Badgley & Alexandra G. Konings & John Shaw, 2020. "Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1091-1095, December.
    3. Lei Ye & Ke Shi & Zhuohang Xin & Chao Wang & Chi Zhang, 2019. "Compound Droughts and Heat Waves in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Graham Simpkins, 2017. "Progress in climate modelling," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 684-685, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kaiwen Li & Ming Wang & Kai Liu, 2021. "The Study on Compound Drought and Heatwave Events in China Using Complex Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Fanghua, 2022. "Changes and driving factors of compound agricultural droughts and hot events in eastern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    3. N. Evangeliou & H. Grythe & Z. Klimont & C. Heyes & S. Eckhardt & S. Lopez-Aparicio & A. Stohl, 2020. "Atmospheric transport is a major pathway of microplastics to remote regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Lusheng Che & Shuyan Yin & Junfang Jin & Weijian Wu, 2024. "Assessment and Simulation of Urban Ecological Environment Quality Based on Geographic Information System Ecological Index," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, May.
    5. Scheiter, Simon & Kumar, Dushyant & Pfeiffer, Mirjam & Langan, Liam, 2024. "Modeling drought mortality and resilience of savannas and forests in tropical Asia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 494(C).
    6. Coral Salvador & Raquel Nieto & Cristina Linares & Julio Díaz & Luis Gimeno, 2020. "Quantification of the Effects of Droughts on Daily Mortality in Spain at Different Timescales at Regional and National Levels: A Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-16, August.
    7. Dang, Hongzhong & Han, Hui & Chen, Shuai & Li, Mingyang, 2021. "A fragile soil moisture environment exacerbates the climate change-related impacts on the water use by Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) in northern China: Long-term observations," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Chakraborty, Debaditya & Alam, Arafat & Chaudhuri, Saptarshi & Başağaoğlu, Hakan & Sulbaran, Tulio & Langar, Sandeep, 2021. "Scenario-based prediction of climate change impacts on building cooling energy consumption with explainable artificial intelligence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    9. Crespo, Ana & Velázquez, Javier & Herráez, Fernando & Gülçin, Derya & Özcan, Ali Ugur & Hernando, Ana & Castanho, Rui Alexandre, 2023. "Territorial planning of rustic land constructions and their adaptation to climate change in the province of Málaga, Spain," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Yuanyue Pi & Yang Yu & Yuqing Zhang & Changchun Xu & Ruide Yu, 2020. "Extreme Temperature Events during 1960–2017 in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Associated Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    11. Yulong Yao & Wei Zhang & Ben Kirtman, 2023. "Increasing impacts of summer extreme precipitation and heatwaves in eastern China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Jiang, Nana & Jiang, Wei & Wang, Yanfei & Zhang, Jinning, 2024. "Impact of financial reform on urban resilience: Evidence from the financial reform pilot zones in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Holtmann, Anne & Huth, Andreas & Bohn, Friedrich & Fischer, Rico, 2024. "Assessing the impact of multi-year droughts on German forests in the context of increased tree mortality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    14. Lei Jiang & Yongqin David Chen & Jianfeng Li & Cancan Liu, 2022. "Amplification of soil moisture deficit and high temperature in a drought-heatwave co-occurrence in southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(1), pages 641-660, March.
    15. He, Bao-Jie & Wang, Junsong & Zhu, Jin & Qi, Jinda, 2022. "Beating the urban heat: Situation, background, impacts and the way forward in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Orpita U. Laz & Ataur Rahman & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2023. "Compound heatwave and drought hotspots and their trends in Southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 357-386, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-024-03856-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.