IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v175y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-022-03473-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Bui Phan Quoc Nghia

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Indrajit Pal

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Malay Pramanik

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Rajarshi Dasgupta

    (Indian Institute of Technology
    Institute for Global Environmental Strategies)

Abstract

Drought is one of the most frequent and widespread natural hazards in Tien Giang province of Vietnam, which is aggravating under the influence of climate change. As agriculture is the primary economy of the province, it is crucial to understand the influence of climate change on drought severity and how the local farmers perceive and adapt to climate change. Therefore, to examine the impacts of climate change on drought in the Tien Giang province in the Mekong Delta, the present study used three General Circulation Models (GCMs)—ACCESS 1.3, CNRM-CM5, and MRI-CGCM3 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In addition, the study evaluated household-level adaptation strategies based on structured questionnaire-based household survey data and focus group discussion. This study finds that the drought will be getting more severe in the future in the province based on using three GCMs and two climate change scenarios. The estimated results of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) show that there would be many potential extreme drought years between 2020 and 2050. The results from the questionnaire survey depicted that the household perception of drought is moderate in the Mekong Delta. The current adaptation measures are sufficient to adapt to moderate drought and can be improved to adapt to more potential extreme drought conditions in the future. This study provides important insights for decision-makers to manage future drought situations in the Mekong region.

Suggested Citation

  • Bui Phan Quoc Nghia & Indrajit Pal & Malay Pramanik & Rajarshi Dasgupta, 2022. "The impact of climate change on drought and its adaptation strategies: findings from general circulation models and households in Tien Giang Province, Vietnam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:175:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03473-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03473-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03473-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03473-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Shamsuddin Shahid & Noraliani Alias & Eun-Sung Chung, 2018. "Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    2. Tien D. N. Ho & John K. M. Kuwornu & Takuji W. Tsusaka, 2022. "Factors Influencing Smallholder Rice Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 272-302, February.
    3. Morteza Mohsenipour & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-sung Chung & Xiao-jun Wang, 2018. "Changing Pattern of Droughts during Cropping Seasons of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1555-1568, March.
    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Indrajit Pal & Ganesh Dhungana & Ayush Baskota & Parmeshwar Udmale & Mayuri Ashokrao Gadhawe & Puvadol Doydee & Tanh T. N. Nguyen & Seak Sophat, 2023. "Multi-Hazard Livelihood Security and Resilience of Lower Mekong Basin Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohammed Magdy Hamed & Najeebullah Khan & Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Ranking of Empirical Evapotranspiration Models in Different Climate Zones of Pakistan," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Mohammad Ahsan Uddin & ASM Maksud Kamal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2020. "Volatility in Rainfall and Predictability of Droughts in Northwest Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad & Mohamed Salem Nashwan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi bin Ismail & Young Hoon Song & Eun-Sung Chung, 2019. "Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-19, August.
    4. Sumaiya Jarin Ahammed & Rajab Homsi & Najeebullah Khan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Morteza Mohsenipour & Kamal Ahmed & Nadeem Nawaz & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2020. "Assessment of changing pattern of crop water stress in Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4619-4637, June.
    5. Mahiuddin Alamgir & Morteza Mohsenipour & Rajab Homsi & Xiaojun Wang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2019. "Parametric Assessment of Seasonal Drought Risk to Crop Production in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    7. Young Hoon Song & Eun-Sung Chung & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, 2020. "Uncertainty Analysis of Monthly Precipitation in GCMs Using Multiple Bias Correction Methods under Different RCPs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Salem, Golam Saleh Ahmed & Kazama, So & Shahid, Shamsuddin & Dey, Nepal C., 2018. "Impacts of climate change on groundwater level and irrigation cost in a groundwater dependent irrigated region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 33-42.
    9. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    10. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Guglielmo Zappalà, 2023. "Drought Exposure and Accuracy: Motivated Reasoning in Climate Change Beliefs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(3), pages 649-672, August.
    12. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    13. Meraj Sarwary & Senthilnathan Samiappan & Ghulam Dastgir Khan & Masaood Moahid, 2023. "Climate Change and Cereal Crops Productivity in Afghanistan: Evidence Based on Panel Regression Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    14. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    16. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    17. Mohamed Kefi & Binaya Kumar Mishra & Yoshifumi Masago & Kensuke Fukushi, 2020. "Analysis of flood damage and influencing factors in urban catchments: case studies in Manila, Philippines, and Jakarta, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2461-2487, December.
    18. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.
    19. Flavio R. Arroyo M. & Luis J. Miguel, 2019. "The Trends of the Energy Intensity and CO 2 Emissions Related to Final Energy Consumption in Ecuador: Scenarios of National and Worldwide Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, December.
    20. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:175:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03473-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.