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Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines

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  • Elisabeth A. Lloyd

    (Indiana University)

  • Theodore G. Shepherd

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and will affect extreme events in their regions to such an extent that the plaintiffs already had been or will be harmed. The storyline approach to attribution is deterministic rather than probabilistic, taking certain factors as contingent and assessing the role of climate change conditional on those factors. The US Government’s opposing expert witness argued that Trenberth had failed to make his case because “all his conclusions of the injuries to Plaintiffs suffer from the same failure to connect his conditional approach to Plaintiffs’ local circumstances.” The issue is whether it is possible to make statements about individual events based on general knowledge. A similar question is sometimes debated within the climate science community. We argue here that proceeding from the general to the specific is a process of deduction and is an entirely legitimate form of scientific reasoning. We further argue that it is well aligned with the concept of legal evidence, much more so than the more usual inductive form of scientific reasoning, which proceeds from the specific to the general. This has implications for how attribution science can be used to support climate change litigation. “The question is”, said Alice, “whether you can make words mean different things.” “The question is”, said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master — that’s all.” (Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland).

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-13, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03177-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03177-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Naomi Oreskes & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Edward J. Larson, 2021. "Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    3. Michael Mastrandrea & Katharine Mach & Gian-Kasper Plattner & Ottmar Edenhofer & Thomas Stocker & Christopher Field & Kristie Ebi & Patrick Matschoss, 2011. "The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 675-691, October.
    4. David J. Frame & Suzanne M. Rosier & Ilan Noy & Luke J. Harrington & Trevor Carey-Smith & Sarah N. Sparrow & Dáithí A. Stone & Samuel M. Dean, 2020. "Climate change attribution and the economic costs of extreme weather events: a study on damages from extreme rainfall and drought," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 781-797, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo Germán Joosten & Julia Mindlin & Jonas Østergaard Nielsen & Luis María Cruz & Marina Sardi & Claudia Valeggia, 2024. "From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 1-25, August.
    2. Henrik Thorén & Johannes Persson & Lennart Olsson, 2021. "A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Theodore G. Shepherd & Elisabeth A. Lloyd, 2021. "Meaningful climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Deborah R. Coen & Adam Sobel, 2022. "Introduction: Critical and historical perspectives on usable climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9, May.
    5. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Olayinka Oyekola & Rasheed Adigun & Temitope Fagbemi & Oluwagbenga Seyingbo & Rodiat Lawal, 2023. "Heterogeneous and time varying nexus between climate change and quality of life in Africa," Discussion Papers 2308, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.

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