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From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo Germán Joosten

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata
    Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires)

  • Julia Mindlin

    (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires
    Universidad de Buenos Aires)

  • Jonas Østergaard Nielsen

    (Humboldt-Universität Zu Berlin
    Integrative Research Institute On Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität Zu Berlin)

  • Luis María Cruz

    (Fundación FUNGIR)

  • Marina Sardi

    (Universidad Nacional de La Plata
    Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires)

  • Claudia Valeggia

    (Yale University)

Abstract

Communicating climate change projections to diverse stakeholders and addressing their concerns is crucial for fostering effective climate adaptation. This paper explores the use of storyline projections as an intermediate technology that bridges the gap between climate science and local knowledge in the Pilcomayo basin. Through fieldwork and interviews with different stakeholders, key environmental concerns influenced by climate change were identified. Traditional approaches to produce regional climate information based on projections often lack relevance to local communities and fail to address their concerns explicitly. By means of storylines approach to evaluate climate projections and by differentiating between upper and middle-lower basin regions and focusing on dry (winter) and rainy (summer) seasons, three qualitatively different storylines of plausible precipitation and temperature changes were identified and related to the main potential risks. By integrating these climate results with local knowledge, a summary of the social and environmental impacts related to each storyline was produced, resulting in three narrated plausible scenarios for future environmental change. The analysis revealed that climate change significantly influences existing issues and activities in the region. Projected trends indicate a shift towards warmer and drier conditions, with uncertainties mainly surrounding summer rainfall, which impacts the probability of increased flooding and river course changes, two of the most concerning issues in the region. These findings serve as a foundation for problem-specific investigations and contribute to informed decision-making for regional climate adaptation. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering local concerns when developing climate change projections and adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Germán Joosten & Julia Mindlin & Jonas Østergaard Nielsen & Luis María Cruz & Marina Sardi & Claudia Valeggia, 2024. "From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 29(6), pages 1-25, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:29:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-024-10160-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-024-10160-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Karoliina Pulkkinen & Sabine Undorf & Frida Bender & Per Wikman-Svahn & Francisco Doblas-Reyes & Clare Flynn & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Aiden Jönsson & Gah-Kai Leung & Joe Roussos & Theodore G. Shepherd &, 2022. "The value of values in climate science," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 4-6, January.
    3. Claudio Laboranti, 2011. "Pilcomayo River Basin Institutional Structure," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(03), pages 539-554.
    4. Adam H. Sobel, 2021. "Usable climate science is adaptation science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-11, May.
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