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Future changes to high impact weather in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Helen M. Hanlon

    (Met Office)

  • Dan Bernie

    (Met Office)

  • Giulia Carigi

    (Met Office
    University of Reading)

  • Jason A. Lowe

    (Met Office
    University of Leeds)

Abstract

High impact weather events such as extreme temperatures or rainfall can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy. In this study we draw on the latest set of UK climate projections, UKCP, to examine metrics relating to high-impact weather over the UK and how these change with different levels of future global warming from 1.5 °C to 4 °C above pre-industrial. The changes to these hazards show increases in the frequency of extremely hot days and nights, with a UK average increase in hot days of between 5 and 39 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Projections indicate an increase in cooling degree days of 134–627% and an increase in growing degree days of 19–60% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Extremely hot nights, which are currently rare, are emerging as more common occurrences. The frequency of high daily temperatures and rainfall increase systematically, while the frequency of very cold conditions (based on days where temperatures fall below 0 °C) is shown to decrease by 10 to 49 days per year. A reduction in heating degree days, of 11–32% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming, is projected. Levels of daily rainfall, which currently relate to increased risk of river flooding, are shown to increase across the country, with increases of days with high impact levels of rainfall occurring by 1 to 8 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. Average drought severity is projected to increase for 3-, 6-, 12- and 36-month-long droughts. The largest changes in the severity of the 12-month drought are between −3 and +19% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming and for 36-month drought between −2 and +54% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. The projected future changes in high impact weather from this study will enable the characterization of climate risks and ultimately be able to better inform adaptation planning in different sectors to support the increase in resilience of the UK to future climate variability and change.

Suggested Citation

  • Helen M. Hanlon & Dan Bernie & Giulia Carigi & Jason A. Lowe, 2021. "Future changes to high impact weather in the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03100-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03100-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Dallison, Richard J.H. & Patil, Sopan D., 2023. "Impact of climate change on hydropower potential in the UK and Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 611-628.
    3. Ehsan Ahmadian & Chris Bingham & Amira Elnokaly & Behzad Sodagar & Ivan Verhaert, 2022. "Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-22, November.
    4. Silvia Marková & Hayley C. Lanier & Marco A. Escalante & Marcos O. R. Cruz & Michaela Horníková & Mateusz Konczal & Lawrence J. Weider & Jeremy B. Searle & Petr Kotlík, 2023. "Local adaptation and future climate vulnerability in a wild rodent," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Tianni Wang & Mark Ching-Pong Poo & Adolf K. Y. Ng & Zaili Yang, 2023. "Adapting to the Impacts Posed by Climate Change: Applying the Climate Change Risk Indicator (CCRI) Framework in a Multi-Modal Transport System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.

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