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The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century

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  • Jianfu Han

    (Hangzhou Dianzi University)

  • Yuda Yang

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes reconstructed data on temperature, precipitation, and extreme drought events in the late fifteenth century in Northern China, as well as historical records on population migration, financial crises, military farms, and national decisions during the Ming dynasty. We specifically examine the socio-economic effects of extreme drought events, which led to long-term changes causing the collapse of the Ming dynasty. Our results indicate that the first Cold Valley and the frequent extreme drought events of the Little Ice Age in the late fifteenth century led to a sharp reduction in the military farm system. Extreme droughts caused a large-scale population migration in Northern China and led to the collapse of the tax payment and corvee systems. To cope with the extreme droughts, the local financial reserve was reduced by 51.3%. As a result, local finances became extremely tight. To alleviate fiscal pressures, the court was forced to change the socioeconomic model implemented in the beginning of the Ming dynasty to the corvee equalization method and silver coin tax collection method. These new measures resulted in a decline of the dynasty’s control over households, to the abandonment of military farms, and to reduced control over the country’s social risks. This article explains the mechanism through which climate events led to the collapse of the Ming dynasty. We specifically explore the relationship between socioeconomic transformation and extreme drought in the late fifteenth century in order to better understand the relationship between climate change and social response.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianfu Han & Yuda Yang, 2021. "The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:164:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-02972-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02972-x
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    1. Gergana Yancheva & Norbert R. Nowaczyk & Jens Mingram & Peter Dulski & Georg Schettler & Jörg F. W. Negendank & Jiaqi Liu & Daniel M. Sigman & Larry C. Peterson & Gerald H. Haug, 2007. "Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7123), pages 74-77, January.
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    3. Gabriele C. Hegerl & Thomas J. Crowley & William T. Hyde & David J. Frame, 2006. "Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7087), pages 1029-1032, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guoyu Ren & Johnny C. L. Chan & Hisayuki Kubota & Zhongshi Zhang & Jinbao Li & Yongxiang Zhang & Yingxian Zhang & Yuda Yang & Yuyu Ren & Xiubao Sun & Yun Su & Yuhui Liu & Zhixin Hao & Xiaoying Xue & Y, 2021. "Historical and recent change in extreme climate over East Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Junyao Zhang & Ning Yao & Yi Li & Feng Li & Bakhtiyor Pulatov, 2022. "Effects of Different Socioeconomic Development Levels on Extreme Precipitation Events in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Xudong Chen & Le Tao & Fangyu Tian & Yun Su & Jingxue Pan & Siying Chen & Xianshuai Zhai, 2024. "The Qing’s central government response to the most severe drought over the past 300 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-20, July.

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