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How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty

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  • Jingyun Zheng
  • Lingbo Xiao
  • Xiuqi Fang
  • Zhixin Hao
  • Quansheng Ge
  • Beibei Li

Abstract

Based on the reconstructed temperatures, precipitation changes, and occurrences of extreme climate events, together with historical records on fiscal deterioration, food crises, and the frequencies of popular unrest, rebellions and wars, we identified three principal ways in which climate change contributed to the collapse in the Ming dynasty. Firstly, cooling, aridification, and desertification during a cold period destroyed the military farm system, which was the main supply system for the provisioning of government troops on the northern frontiers; these impacts increased the military expenditure from 64 % of total government expenditure in 1548–1569 to 76 % in 1570–1589 and thus aggravated the national fiscal crisis that occurred during the late Ming dynasty. Secondly, climate deterioration (e.g., cooling, aridification, and an increase in the frequencies of frost- and drought-related disasters, etc.) led to a 20–50 % reduction in the per capita production of raw grain in most areas of China, which resulted in widespread food crises and exacerbated the vulnerability of social structures during the last several decades of the Ming dynasty. Thirdly, the severe droughts occurring in 1627–1643 were a key trigger to the peasantry uprising. These droughts also played a significant role to promote the peasantry uprising, especially reviving the peasantry troops by recruitment of famine victims when they nearly perished in 1633 and 1638, and severely disrupting the food supply for the government troops, resulting in the final defeat of the government troops by the peasantry troops. This study contributes to an understanding of the climate-related mechanisms behind the collapse of the Ming dynasty, and provides a historical case study that enhances our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and social vulnerability. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jingyun Zheng & Lingbo Xiao & Xiuqi Fang & Zhixin Hao & Quansheng Ge & Beibei Li, 2014. "How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 169-182, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:127:y:2014:i:2:p:169-182
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1244-7
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    2. Zhixin Hao & Mengxin Bai & Danyang Xiong & Yang Liu & Jingyun Zheng, 2021. "The severe drought of 1876–1878 in North China and possible causes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Xu-Dong Chen & Yun Su & Xiu-Qi Fang, 2021. "Social impacts of extreme drought event in Guanzhong area, Shaanxi Province, during 1928–1931," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Channing Arndt & Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Climate change and its implications for central banks in emerging and developing economies," Working Papers 10001, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Jianxin Cui & Hong Chang & George S. Burr & Xiaolong Zhao & Baoming Jiang, 2019. "Climatic change and the rise of the Manchu from Northeast China during AD 1600–1650," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 405-423, October.
    6. Shuhei Kitamura, 2023. "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Mind and Culture: Evidence from Visual Art," Papers 2307.15540, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.
    7. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
    8. Constantin Laura-Gabriela & Iamandi Irina-Eugenia, 2014. "Revealing The Sustainable Development Equilibrium Through Catastrophe Bonds, Social Corporate Engagement And Economic Performance For The European Reinsurance Industry," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 35-43, December.
    9. Zhixin Hao & Danyang Xiong & Jingyun Zheng, 2021. "How ancient China dealt with summer droughts—a case study of the whole process of the 1751 drought in the Qing dynasty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-22, March.
    10. Feng Chen & Hadad Martín & Xiaoen Zhao & Fidel Roig & Heli Zhang & Shijie Wang & Weipeng Yue & Youping Chen, 2022. "Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Shengda Zhang & David Dian Zhang & Qing Pei, 2021. "Spatiotemporal shifts of population and war under climate change in imperial China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.

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