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Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Aviva Loew

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Paulina Jaramillo

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Haibo Zhai

    (University of Wyoming)

  • Rahim Ali

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Bart Nijssen

    (University of Washington)

  • Yifan Cheng

    (University of Washington)

  • Kelly Klima

    (Carnegie Mellon University
    RAND Corporation)

Abstract

Climate change introduces an uncertain risk to power plant operations as ambient conditions potentially constrain generation through thermodynamic limitations. Previous studies aiming to quantify this risk have suggested a wide range of results, from minimal to disastrous capacity loss. In this analysis, we used a power plant modeling tool to study how a variety of power plant configurations respond to varying meteorological conditions. We developed tools that enable the analysis of the climate impacts on power plant operations for a spectrum of geographic situations and technological configurations. We also used these tools to conduct a case study for US coal and natural gas power plants in 2050, under climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 4.5. Our study indicates that rising air temperatures are unlikely to seriously threaten capacity and efficiency at power plants at most locations, provided that wet recirculating and dry cooling systems are designed adequately. Our results allow for simpler modeling of power plant capacity deratings given ambient conditions, highlight potential regions of risk, and underscore the importance of incorporating climate factors into the electric power system’s design and planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Aviva Loew & Paulina Jaramillo & Haibo Zhai & Rahim Ali & Bart Nijssen & Yifan Cheng & Kelly Klima, 2020. "Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 619-632, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:163:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02834-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02834-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).

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