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Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

Author

Listed:
  • Lu Liu

    (University of Maryland
    Joint Global Change Research Institute)

  • Mohamad Hejazi

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland)

  • Hongyi Li

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Montana State University)

  • Barton Forman

    (University of Maryland)

  • Xiao Zhang

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Abstract

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2–3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Liu & Mohamad Hejazi & Hongyi Li & Barton Forman & Xiao Zhang, 2017. "Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 1-5, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:2:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1038_nenergy.2017.109
    DOI: 10.1038/nenergy.2017.109
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    Cited by:

    1. Tidwell, Vincent C. & Gunda, Thushara & Gayoso, Natalie, 2021. "Plant-level characteristics could aid in the assessment of water-related threats to the electric power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PA).
    2. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Chen, Hao & Liu, Simin & Liu, Qiufeng & Shi, Xueli & Wei, Wendong & Han, Rong & Küfeoğlu, Sinan, 2021. "Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Kahsar, Rudy, 2020. "The potential for brackish water use in thermoelectric power generation in the American southwest," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Zhang, Xiao & Li, Hong-Yi & Deng, Zhiqun D. & Leung, L. Ruby & Skalski, John R. & Cooke, Steven J., 2019. "On the variable effects of climate change on Pacific salmon," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 95-106.
    6. Meng, Measrainsey & Sanders, Kelly T., 2019. "A data-driven approach to investigate the impact of air temperature on the efficiencies of coal and natural gas generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Pengbang Wei & Yufang Peng & Weidong Chen, 2022. "Climate change adaptation mechanisms and strategies of coal-fired power plants," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Aviva Loew & Paulina Jaramillo & Haibo Zhai & Rahim Ali & Bart Nijssen & Yifan Cheng & Kelly Klima, 2020. "Fossil fuel–fired power plant operations under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 619-632, November.
    9. Craig, Michael T. & Cohen, Stuart & Macknick, Jordan & Draxl, Caroline & Guerra, Omar J. & Sengupta, Manajit & Haupt, Sue Ellen & Hodge, Bri-Mathias & Brancucci, Carlo, 2018. "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 255-267.
    10. Jin, Yi & Scherer, Laura & Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2022. "Climate change and CCS increase the water vulnerability of China's thermoelectric power fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    11. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    12. Daniel C. Steinberg & Bryan K. Mignone & Jordan Macknick & Yinong Sun & Kelly Eurek & Andrew Badger & Ben Livneh & Kristen Averyt, 2020. "Decomposing supply-side and demand-side impacts of climate change on the US electricity system through 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 125-139, January.

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