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Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Helgeson, Casey

    (London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE))

  • Bradley, Richard

    (London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Philosophy)

  • Hill, Brian

    (HEC Paris - Economics & Decision Sciences; CNRS)

Abstract

Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Helgeson, Casey & Bradley, Richard & Hill, Brian, 2018. "Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment," HEC Research Papers Series 1298, HEC Paris.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1298
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3177022
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A. Kause & W. Bruine de Bruin & J. Persson & H. Thorén & L. Olsson & A. Wallin & S. Dessai & N. Vareman, 2022. "Confidence levels and likelihood terms in IPCC reports: a survey of experts from different scientific disciplines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Marina Baldissera Pacchetti & Suraje Dessai & David A. Stainforth & Seamus Bradley, 2021. "Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Scott Janzwood, 2020. "Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1655-1675, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    confidence; uncertainty reporting; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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