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Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Sailesh Ranjitkar

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry
    World Agroforestry)

  • Dengpan Bu

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry
    Hunan Co-Innovation Center of Animal Production Safety)

  • Mark Wijk

    (International Livestock Research Institute, ILRI)

  • Ying Ma

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)

  • Lu Ma

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry)

  • Lianshen Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
    CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry)

  • Jianmin Shi

    (National Animal Husbandry Services)

  • Chousheng Liu

    (National Animal Husbandry Services)

  • Jianchu Xu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    CAAS-ICRAF Joint Lab on Agroforestry and Sustainable Animal Husbandry
    World Agroforestry
    Kunming Institute of Botany)

Abstract

There are clear signs that milk production growth is leveling off, and recently even declining, in China. Heat stress is one of the main reasons for the recent reduction in milk production. In this study, we computed the change in milk production as a result of heat stress in major milk production areas in China. We constructed a temperature–humidity index (THI) spatial layer to understand the monthly distribution of heat and moisture. We documented specific areas in northern China where cattle were at high risk to heat stress in specific months. THI values exceeded the threshold above which milk production declines during months of June, July, and August. Especially during July, the THI value was higher than the production threshold in recent years (2008 to 2016) and in projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). THI-based milk yield losses were up from 0.7 to about 4 kg per cow per day in July 2016. These losses are projected to increase from 1.5 to 6.5 kg in 2050 and 2 to 7.2 kg in 2070 (representing production losses between 15 and 50%). These results suggest that climate change will have significant consequences for the dairy sector in major milk-producing areas in China. Our results are useful in identifying areas susceptible to heat stress where adaptive livestock management practices are needed to prevent significant production decreases.

Suggested Citation

  • Sailesh Ranjitkar & Dengpan Bu & Mark Wijk & Ying Ma & Lu Ma & Lianshen Zhao & Jianmin Shi & Chousheng Liu & Jianchu Xu, 2020. "Will heat stress take its toll on milk production in China?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 637-652, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02688-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02688-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Tilman & Michael Clark, 2014. "Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 515(7528), pages 518-522, November.
    2. Alexandratos, Nikos & Bruinsma, Jelle, 2012. "World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision," ESA Working Papers 288998, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Ting Wang & Rongzhen Zhong & Daowei Zhou, 2020. "Temporal–Spatial Distribution of Risky Sites for Feeding Cattle in China Based on Temperature/Humidity Index," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    3. Vroege, Willemijn & Dalhaus, Tobias & Wauters, Erwin & Finger, Robert, 2023. "Effects of extreme heat on milk quantity and quality," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Huizhao Yang & Sailesh Ranjitkar & Wenxuan Xu & Lei Han & Jianbo Yang & Liqing Wu & Jianchu Xu, 2021. "Crop-climate model in support of adjusting local ecological calendar in the Taxkorgan, eastern Pamir Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-19, August.

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