IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v6y2016i9d10.1038_nclimate3039.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Paula A. Harrison

    (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Robert W. Dunford

    (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
    Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford)

  • Ian P. Holman

    (Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University)

  • Mark D. A. Rounsevell

    (School of GeoSciences, The University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula A. Harrison & Robert W. Dunford & Ian P. Holman & Mark D. A. Rounsevell, 2016. "Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 885-890, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:9:d:10.1038_nclimate3039
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3039
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nclimate3039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yan Yu & Jiafu Mao & Stan D. Wullschleger & Anping Chen & Xiaoying Shi & Yaoping Wang & Forrest M. Hoffman & Yulong Zhang & Eric Pierce, 2022. "Machine learning–based observation-constrained projections reveal elevated global socioeconomic risks from wildfire," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Fanny Groundstroem & Sirkku Juhola, 2019. "A framework for identifying cross-border impacts of climate change on the energy sector," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 3-15, March.
    3. Iain Brown & Pam Berry, 2022. "National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(3), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Kiziridis, Diogenis A. & Mastrogianni, Anna & Pleniou, Magdalini & Tsiftsis, Spyros & Xystrakis, Fotios & Tsiripidis, Ioannis, 2023. "Improving the predictive performance of CLUE-S by extending demand to land transitions: The trans-CLUE-S model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    5. Christian L. E. Franzke, 2017. "Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and Insurance," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-110, June.
    6. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    7. Anton Orlov & Anne Sophie Daloz & Jana Sillmann & Wim Thiery & Clara Douzal & Quentin Lejeune & Carl Schleussner, 2021. "Global Economic Responses to Heat Stress Impacts on Worker Productivity in Crop Production," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 367-390, October.
    8. Adam Wąs & Vitaliy Krupin & Paweł Kobus & Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks & Robert Jeszke & Krystian Szczepański, 2021. "Towards Climate Neutrality in Poland by 2050: Assessment of Policy Implications in the Farm Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.
    9. Lili Sun & Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge & Caspar Daniel Adenutsi & Xining Hao, 2020. "Spatial Pattern of a Comprehensive f E Index for Provincial Carbon Emissions in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Miriam Dunn & Mark D. Rounsevell & Henrik Carlsen & Adis Dzebo & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Joseph Hagg, 2017. "To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 181-195, March.
    11. He, Jianjian & Yang, Yi & Liao, Zhongju & Xu, Anqi & Fang, Kai, 2022. "Linking SDG 7 to assess the renewable energy footprint of nations by 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    12. Diogenis A. Kiziridis & Anna Mastrogianni & Magdalini Pleniou & Spyros Tsiftsis & Fotios Xystrakis & Ioannis Tsiripidis, 2023. "Simulating Future Land Use and Cover of a Mediterranean Mountainous Area: The Effect of Socioeconomic Demands and Climatic Changes," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Priess, Joerg A. & Hauck, Jennifer & Haines-Young, Roy & Alkemade, Rob & Mandryk, Maryia & Veerkamp, Clara & Gyorgyi, Bela & Dunford, Rob & Berry, Pam & Harrison, Paula & Dick, Jan & Keune, Hans & Kok, 2018. "New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – Scenario process and initial scenario applications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 29(PC), pages 542-551.
    14. Aggestam, Filip & Wolfslehner, Bernhard, 2018. "Deconstructing a complex future: Scenario development and implications for the forest-based sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 21-26.
    15. Andrea Momblanch & Lindsay Beevers & Pradeep Srinivasalu & Anil Kulkarni & Ian P. Holman, 2020. "Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 343-361, September.
    16. Maria Juschten & Florian Reinwald & Roswitha Weichselbaumer & Alexandra Jiricka-Pürrer, 2021. "Developing an Integrative Theoretical Framework for Climate Proofing Spatial Planning across Sectors, Policy Levels, and Planning Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Frank Stadler & Luke Houghton, 2020. "Breathing life into climate change adaptation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 400-409, April.
    18. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    19. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    20. Annelie Holzkämper, 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(10), pages 1-15, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:9:d:10.1038_nclimate3039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.