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Drought adaptation policy development and assessment in East Africa using hydrologic and system dynamics modeling

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  • Lauren Gies
  • Datu Agusdinata
  • Venkatesh Merwade

Abstract

Drought is a natural disaster that affects millions of people across the globe. Lack of rainfall reduces crop yields and livestock productivity and, in turn, food availability and income. In developing countries, these effects are even more detrimental. As droughts become more frequent, adaptation is a fundamental concern for countries and their policymakers. To support a development of drought adaptation policies, a combined hydrologic and system dynamics model was developed for a region in East Africa, focused on the Horn of Africa (i.e., a region bordering Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia), an area that has endured multiple droughts in the last few decades. The model simulates the interdependencies between water availability, land degradation, food availability, and socioeconomic welfare. The impacts of new adaptation policies on the region were evaluated over a 10-year simulation period using historical weather data. It was found that a combination of increased hydraulic infrastructure and innovative agricultural practice policy can reduce domestic water deficits by 54–100 % while increasing the income per capita up to 285 % over the 10 years. Innovatively combining hydrologic and systems dynamic modeling produces a realistic simulation of water scarcity and the effects on natural systems. Implementation of policies within the model aids the selection process by evaluating multiple options, quantifying the effectiveness the policies have on individual stakeholder livelihood (i.e., pastoralist, agro-pastoralists, and farmers), and analyzing the overall outcome to ensure equitable costs and benefits among the stakeholders. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Lauren Gies & Datu Agusdinata & Venkatesh Merwade, 2014. "Drought adaptation policy development and assessment in East Africa using hydrologic and system dynamics modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 789-813, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:789-813
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1216-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Tianxiao Li & Qiuxiang Jiang & Wei Liu, 2015. "Regional food security risk assessment under the coordinated development of water resources," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 603-619, August.
    2. Caroline King-Okumu, 2018. "Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-23, November.
    3. Yaojie Yue & Lin Wang & Jian Li & A-xing Zhu, 2018. "An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 539-553, April.
    4. Ahamadreza Tahsiri & Mohammadjavad Arab, 2023. "A system dynamics model for a holistic analysis of urban NOx emissions: a case study of Tehran, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7299-7323, July.
    5. Karen S. Meijer & Femke Schasfoort & Maike Bennema, 2021. "Quantitative Modeling of Human Responses to Changes in Water Resources Availability: A Review of Methods and Theories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, August.
    6. Cheng, Yung-Hsiang & Chang, Yu-Hern & Lu, I.J., 2015. "Urban transportation energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 953-973.
    7. Craig W. Hutton & Robert J. Nicholls & Attila N. Lázár & Alex Chapman & Marije Schaafsma & Mashfiqus Salehin, 2018. "Potential Trade-Offs between the Sustainable Development Goals in Coastal Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.

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