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Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States

Author

Listed:
  • Xiang Gao

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • C. Adam Schlosser

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Eric R. Morgan

    (MIT Lincoln Laboratory)

Abstract

Large power transformers (LPTs) are critical yet vulnerable components of the power grid. More frequent and intense heat waves or high temperatures can degrade their operational lifetime and increase the risk of premature failure. Without adequate preparedness, a widespread situation could ultimately lead to prolonged grid disruption and incur excessive economic costs. Here, we investigate the potential impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in summertime “hot days” on a selected LPT located in the Northeast United States. We apply an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of hot days based on the salient, associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, to assess the risk of future change in their occurrence. Compared with the more conventional approach that relies on climate model-simulated daily maximum temperature, the analogue method produces model medians of late twentieth century hot day frequency that are more consistent with observation and have stronger inter-model consensus. Under the climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both model daily maximum temperature and the analogue method indicate strong decadal increases in hot day frequency by the late twenty-first century, but the analogue method improves model consensus considerably. The decrease of transformer lifetime with temperature increase is further assessed. The improved inter-model consensus of the analogue method is viewed as a promising step toward providing actionable information for a more stable, reliable, and environmentally responsible national grid.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang Gao & C. Adam Schlosser & Eric R. Morgan, 2018. "Potential impacts of climate warming and increased summer heat stress on the electric grid: a case study for a large power transformer (LPT) in the Northeast United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 107-118, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2114-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2114-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Radu Godina & Eduardo M. G. Rodrigues & João C. O. Matias & João P. S. Catalão, 2015. "Effect of Loads and Other Key Factors on Oil-Transformer Ageing: Sustainability Benefits and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-40, October.
    2. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Velasco Costa & Diogo F. F. da Silva & Paulo J. Costa Branco, 2022. "Large-Power Transformers: Time Now for Addressing Their Monitoring and Failure Investigation Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-59, June.

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