IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bny/wpaper/0084.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Isabel Hovdahl

Abstract

While economists have focused on the e?ect of mean temperatures on mortality, climate scientists have emphasized that global warming might not only lead to an increase in mean temperatures, but can potentially also a?ect temperature variability. This is the ?rst paper to estimate the causal e?ect of temperature variability on mortality. Using monthly state level data for the US in the period 1969-2004, I o?er three main results: (1) Increased monthly temperature variability causes increased mortality, (2) omitting the e?ect of temperature variability on mortality can severely bias our predictions on the number of temperature-induced fatalities caused by global warming, and (3) adaptation to increased temperature variability is more di?cult than adaptation to increased mean temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabel Hovdahl, 2020. "Deadly Variation: The Effect of Temperature Variability on Mortality," Working Papers No 01/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2644047
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karlsson, Martin & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2018. "Population health effects and health-related costs of extreme temperatures: Comprehensive evidence from Germany," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 93-117.
    2. Barreca, Alan I., 2012. "Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-34.
    3. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2011. "Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 152-185, October.
    4. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    5. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2015. "Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 560-564, June.
    6. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2015. "Convergence in Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900-2004," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 247-251, May.
    7. Liuhua Shi & Itai Kloog & Antonella Zanobetti & Pengfei Liu & Joel D. Schwartz, 2015. "Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 988-991, November.
    8. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    9. Maximilian Auffhammer & Solomon M. Hsiang & Wolfram Schlenker & Adam Sobel, 2013. "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 181-198, July.
    10. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    11. Chris Huntingford & Philip D. Jones & Valerie N. Livina & Timothy M. Lenton & Peter M. Cox, 2013. "No increase in global temperature variability despite changing regional patterns," Nature, Nature, vol. 500(7462), pages 327-330, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Risto Conte Keivabu, 2022. "Extreme Temperature and Mortality by Educational Attainment in Spain, 2012–2018," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 1145-1182, December.
    2. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110499, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuliano Masiero & Fabrizio Mazzonna & Michael Santarossa, 2022. "The effect of absolute versus relative temperature on health and the role of social care," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(6), pages 1228-1248, June.
    2. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    3. Fritz, Manuela, 2021. "Temperature and non-communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-84-21, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2017. "Health Consequences of the Russian Weather," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 290-306.
    5. Sam Cosaert & Adrián Nieto & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2023. "Temperature and Joint Time Use," CESifo Working Paper Series 10464, CESifo.
    6. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Popova, Olga & Solomin, Pavel, 2018. "Misfortunes never come singly: Consecutive weather shocks and mortality in Russia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 249-258.
    7. Manuela K. Fritz, 2021. "Temperature and non-communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system," Working Papers 206, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    8. Gibney, Garreth & McDermott, Thomas K.J. & Cullinan, John, 2023. "Temperature, morbidity, and behavior in milder climates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Chen, Xi & Tan, Chih Ming & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "The Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Temperature Extremes on Birth Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 12917, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Meierrieks, Daniel, 2021. "Weather shocks, climate change and human health," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Duan, Hongbo & Yuan, Deyu & Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 155-174.
    13. Manuela Fritz, 2022. "Temperature and non‐communicable diseases: Evidence from Indonesia's primary health care system," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(11), pages 2445-2464, November.
    14. Karlsson, Martin & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2018. "Population health effects and health-related costs of extreme temperatures: Comprehensive evidence from Germany," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 93-117.
    15. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2023. "Climate change and the mortality of the unborn," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Agarwal, Sumit & Qin, Yu & Shi, Luwen & Wei, Guoxu & Zhu, Hongjia, 2021. "Impact of temperature on morbidity: New evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    17. Zhang, Shaohui & Guo, Qinxin & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2022. "Extreme temperatures and residential electricity consumption: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    18. Neidell, Matthew & Uchida, Shinsuke & Veronesi, Marcella, 2019. "Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident," IZA Discussion Papers 12687, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Cosaert, Sam & Nieto Castro, Adrian & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2023. "Temperature and the Timing of Work," IZA Discussion Papers 16480, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Neidell, Matthew & Uchida, Shinsuke & Veronesi, Marcella, 2021. "The unintended effects from halting nuclear power production: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi accident," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helene Olsen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cambino.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.