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Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

Author

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  • R. Iestyn Woolway

    (University of Reading)

  • Pille Meinson

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Peeter Nõges

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

  • Ian D. Jones

    (Lancaster Environment Centre)

  • Alo Laas

    (Estonian University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Iestyn Woolway & Pille Meinson & Peeter Nõges & Ian D. Jones & Alo Laas, 2017. "Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 759-773, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1909-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1909-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saloranta, Tuomo M. & Andersen, Tom, 2007. "MyLake—A multi-year lake simulation model code suitable for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 45-60.
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    1. Ptak Mariusz & Sojka Mariusz & Nowak Bogumił, 2019. "Characteristics of daily water temperature fluctuations in lake kierskie (West Poland)," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 41-49, September.
    2. Temidayo Olowoyeye & Mariusz Ptak & Mariusz Sojka, 2023. "How Do Extreme Lake Water Temperatures in Poland Respond to Climate Change?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Eunsong Jung & Gea-Jae Joo & Hyo Gyeom Kim & Dong-Kyun Kim & Hyun-Woo Kim, 2023. "Effects of Seasonal and Diel Variations in Thermal Stratification on Phytoplankton in a Regulated River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Konstantinos Stefanidis & George Varlas & Anastasios Papadopoulos & Elias Dimitriou, 2021. "Four Decades of Surface Temperature, Precipitation, and Wind Speed Trends over Lakes of Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.

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