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Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • João A. Santos

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD
    Departamento de Física)

  • Ricardo Costa

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • Helder Fraga

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD)

Abstract

Thermal growing conditions of temperate fruit and nut species in Portugal are assessed by two indices: growing degree hours (GDH) and chilling portions (CP). The first evaluates growing season heat accumulation (February–October), while the second determines chill accumulation during dormancy (October–February). These two indices are estimated based on gridded daily minimum and maximum temperatures from a gridded observation-based dataset (E-OBS). Both indices are statistically downscaled to a 1 km grid over mainland Portugal for 1981–2015 (35 years). Furthermore, multi-model climate change projections are provided using four EURO-CORDEX global-regional climate model chains under two future emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2041–2070). Overall, increases of heat accumulation and decreases of chilling accumulation are projected over most of Portugal. However, owing to frequent above-optimum temperatures for temperate fruit trees, decreases of heat accumulation are expected over inner southern Portugal, which combined with significant reductions of winter chill make this region the most affected by climate change. Crop-specific GDH/CP diagrams for eight fruit classes (carob tree, almond tree, chestnut tree, citrus fruits, fresh fruits trees, olive trees, pine nut trees and vines) are analysed taking into account their current spatial distributions. Shifts in their thermal conditions under future scenarios are discussed. Thermal growing conditions of fruit species are innovatively assessed using suitable heat and chilling accumulation measures at very-high spatial resolution and under current and future climates in Portugal. These results may support the Portuguese fruit production sector in planning future strategies to cope with climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • João A. Santos & Ricardo Costa & Helder Fraga, 2017. "Climate change impacts on thermal growing conditions of main fruit species in Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 273-286, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1835-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1835-6
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Reviewing the Adverse Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures on Almond Trees ( Prunus dulcis )," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Manolis G. Grillakis & Evangelos G. Kapetanakis & Eleni Goumenaki, 2022. "Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece: projections based on historical data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Fraga, H. & García de Cortázar Atauri, I. & Santos, J.A, 2018. "Viticultural irrigation demands under climate change scenarios in Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 66-74.
    4. Fraga, Helder & Santos, João A., 2018. "Vineyard mulching as a climate change adaptation measure: Future simulations for Alentejo, Portugal," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 107-115.
    5. Teresa R. Freitas & João A. Santos & Ana P. Silva & André Fonseca & Helder Fraga, 2023. "Evaluation of historical and future thermal conditions for almond trees in north-eastern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    6. Jyoti Singh & Sandeep Sahany & Alan Robock, 2020. "Can stratospheric geoengineering alleviate global warming-induced changes in deciduous fruit cultivation? The case of Himachal Pradesh (India)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1323-1343, October.
    7. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    8. Fraga, Helder & Pinto, Joaquim G. & Santos, João A., 2020. "Olive tree irrigation as a climate change adaptation measure in Alentejo, Portugal," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    9. Koffi Djaman & Komlan Koudahe & Murali Darapuneni & Suat Irmak, 2021. "Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Gabriel Granco & Haoji He & Brandon Lentz & Jully Voong & Alan Reeve & Exal Vega, 2023. "Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, October.

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