IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v135y2016i2p297-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Mares
  • Kenneth Moffett

Abstract

This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to examine if warmer temperatures are associated with higher levels of homicide. Our results indicate that each degree Celsius increase in annual temperatures is associated with a nearly 6 % average increase in homicides. Regional variation in this predicted effect is detected, for example, with no apparent effects in former Soviet countries and far stronger effects found in Africa. Such variation indicates that climate change may acutely increase violence in areas that already are affected by higher levels of homicides and other social dislocations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Mares & Kenneth Moffett, 2016. "Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 297-310, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:p:297-310
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    2. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    3. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
    4. Ranson, Matthew, 2014. "Crime, weather, and climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 274-302.
    5. Steven T Landis, 2014. "Temperature seasonality and violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 51(5), pages 603-618, September.
    6. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    7. Tim Wadsworth, 2010. "Is Immigration Responsible for the Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(2), pages 531-553, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cathy W. S. Chen & Sangyeol Lee, 2017. "Bayesian causality test for integer-valued time series models with applications to climate and crime data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 797-814, August.
    2. Alice J. Sommer & Mihye Lee & Marie-Abèle C. Bind, 2018. "Comparing apples to apples: an environmental criminology analysis of the effects of heat and rain on violent crimes in Boston," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Dennis Mares & Emily Blackburn, 2019. "Major League Baseball and Crime: Opportunity, Spatial Patterns, and Team Rivalry at St. Louis Cardinal Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(7), pages 875-902, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dennis M. Mares & Kenneth W. Moffett, 2016. "Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 297-310, March.
    2. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    3. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    4. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.
    5. Richard Akresh, 2016. "Climate Change, Conflict, and Children," HiCN Working Papers 221, Households in Conflict Network.
    6. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1903, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    7. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," Cahiers de recherche 19-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    8. Cohen, Francois & Gonzalez, Fidel, 2018. "Understanding Interpersonal Violence: the Impact of Temperatures in Mexico," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-01, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    9. Liang, Weidong & Sim, Nicholas, 2019. "Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Goyette, Jonathan & Smaoui, Maroua, 2022. "Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Ceren Baysan & Marshall Burke & Felipe González & Solomon Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2018. "Economic and Non-Economic Factors in Violence: Evidence from Organized Crime, Suicides and Climate in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    13. Njuki, Eric, 2021. "Nonlinear weather and climate-induced effects on hired farm labor wages: Evidence from the U.S. Cornbelt," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313959, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    15. Jetter, Michael & Mahmood, Rafat & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Ramirez Hassan, Andres, 2020. "Explaining Post-Cold-War Civil Conflict among 17 Billion Models: The Importance of History and Religion," IZA Discussion Papers 13511, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Bruederle, Anna & Roberts, Gareth, 2022. "Weather and Crime—Cautious evidence from South Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22.
    17. François Gemenne & Jon Barnett & W. Adger & Geoffrey Dabelko, 2014. "Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 1-9, March.
    18. Holtermann, Linus & Rische, Marie-Christin, 2020. "The Subnational Effect of Temperature on Economic Production: A Disaggregated Analysis in European Regions," MPRA Paper 104606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    20. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:p:297-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.