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Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities

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  • Dennis M. Mares

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville)

  • Kenneth W. Moffett

    (Southern Illinois University Edwardsville)

Abstract

This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to examine if warmer temperatures are associated with higher levels of homicide. Our results indicate that each degree Celsius increase in annual temperatures is associated with a nearly 6 % average increase in homicides. Regional variation in this predicted effect is detected, for example, with no apparent effects in former Soviet countries and far stronger effects found in Africa. Such variation indicates that climate change may acutely increase violence in areas that already are affected by higher levels of homicides and other social dislocations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis M. Mares & Kenneth W. Moffett, 2016. "Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 297-310, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1566-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1566-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Kai Yang & Han Li & Dehui Wang & Chenhui Zhang, 2021. "Random coefficients integer-valued threshold autoregressive processes driven by logistic regression," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 105(4), pages 533-557, December.
    3. Alice J. Sommer & Mihye Lee & Marie-Abèle C. Bind, 2018. "Comparing apples to apples: an environmental criminology analysis of the effects of heat and rain on violent crimes in Boston," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Andrej Přívara & Magdaléna Přívarová, 2019. "Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Dennis Mares & Emily Blackburn, 2019. "Major League Baseball and Crime: Opportunity, Spatial Patterns, and Team Rivalry at St. Louis Cardinal Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(7), pages 875-902, October.
    6. Brian C. Thiede & Sara Ronnkvist & Anna Armao & Katrina Burka, 2022. "Climate anomalies and birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.

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