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Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda

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  • François Gemenne
  • Jon Barnett
  • W. Adger
  • Geoffrey Dabelko

Abstract

There are diverse linkages between climate change and security including risks of conflict, national security concerns, critical national infrastructure, geo-political rivalries and threats to human security. We review analysis of these domains from primary research and from policy prescriptive and advocacy sources. We conclude that much analysis over-emphasises deterministic mechanisms between climate change and security. Yet the climate-security nexus is more complex than it appears and requires attention from across the social sciences. We review the robustness of present social sciences analysis in assessing the causes and consequences of climate change on human security, and identify new areas of research. These new areas include the need to analyse the absence of conflict in the face of climate risks and the need to expand the range of issues accounted for in analysis of climate and security including the impacts of mitigation response on domains of security. We argue for the necessity of robust theories that explain causality and associations, and the need to include theories of asymmetric power relations in explaining security dimensions. We also highlight the dilemmas of how observations and historical analysis of climate and security dimensions may be limited as the climate changes in ways that present regions with unprecedented climate risks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • François Gemenne & Jon Barnett & W. Adger & Geoffrey Dabelko, 2014. "Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 1-9, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:1:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1074-7
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    2. Emma Hakala & Ville Lähde & Antti Majava & Tero Toivanen & Tere Vadén & Paavo Järvensivu & Jussi T. Eronen, 2019. "A Lot of Talk, But Little Action—The Blind Spots of Nordic Environmental Security Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Fernando Riosmena & Raphael Nawrotzki & Lori Hunter, 2018. "Climate Migration at the Height and End of the Great Mexican Emigration Era," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 455-488, September.
    4. Leonardo Chiesi & Giuseppina Forte, 2022. "Design for Climate Change in the Neoliberal Present: Gentrification, Ecocide, and the Loss of Urbanity in New York City," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-25, October.
    5. Abrahams, Daniel, 2020. "Conflict in abundance and peacebuilding in scarcity: Challenges and opportunities in addressing climate change and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Twecan, Dalson & Wang, Weiguang & Xu, Junzeng & Mohmmed, Alnail, 2022. "Climate change vulnerability, adaptation measures, and risk perceptions at households level in Acholi sub-region, Northern Uganda," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Sanaz Honarmand Ebrahimi & Marinus Ossewaarde, 2019. "Not a Security Issue: How Policy Experts De-Politicize the Climate Change–Migration Nexus," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Basil Germond & Fong Wa Ha, 2019. "Climate change and maritime security narrative: the case of the international maritime organisation," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, March.
    9. Noman Rasheed & Dilawar Khan & Aisha Gul & Róbert Magda, 2023. "Impact Assessment of Climate Mitigation Finance on Climate Change in South Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Richard A. Marcantonio & Shahzeen Z. Attari & Tom P. Evans, 2018. "Farmer Perceptions of Conflict Related to Water in Zambia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, January.
    11. C. E. Richards & R. C. Lupton & J. M. Allwood, 2021. "Re-framing the threat of global warming: an empirical causal loop diagram of climate change, food insecurity and societal collapse," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Dimitrios Kantemnidis & Iosif Botetzagias, 2023. "Understanding the Environmental Security Perceptions of the European Union’s Security Actors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-21, August.
    13. World Bank, 2020. "Somalia Country Environmental Analysis," World Bank Publications - Reports 34058, The World Bank Group.

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