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Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia

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  • Oussama Zouabi
  • Nicolas Peridy

Abstract

North African countries (NACs) are particularly concerned with climate change because of their geographical position (close to deserts) and their economic dependence on agriculture. We aim to provide additional insight into the impact of climate on agriculture for NACs, through the example of Tunisia. We first use disaggregated data, both at the geographical level (for 24 regions in Tunisia) and at the product level (cereals, olives, citrus fruit, tomatoes, potatoes and palm trees). Second, through spatial panel data analysis, we explore both the time and spatial dimensions of the data. This makes it possible to consider spatial interactions in agricultural production and the role of climate in these spatial spillover effects. Finally, the model not only includes direct climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, but also indirect climate-related variables such as the stock of water in dams and groundwater. Results show that Tunisian agriculture is strongly dependent on the direct effects of temperature and precipitation for all the products considered at the regional level. The presence of dams and groundwater generally has a positive effect on agricultural production for irrigated crops with interesting spillover effects with neighboring regions. However, this impact is still considerably lessened in the case of detrimental climate conditions (indirect effect). These results raise the question of the sustainability of the growth in agricultural production in Tunisia in the case of significant climate change. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Oussama Zouabi & Nicolas Peridy, 2015. "Direct and indirect effects of climate on agriculture: an application of a spatial panel data analysis to Tunisia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 301-320, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:2:p:301-320
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1458-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Senzele, Joseph & AMAYENE, Chimène, 2022. "Impact of climate change on household agricultural incomes in niger: spatial econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 118073, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jul 2023.
    3. AMOUZAY, Hassan & El Ghini, Ahmed, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Key Spatial Econometric Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture," MPRA Paper 123222, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Dec 2024.
    4. Younes Ben Zaied & Oussama Zouabi, 2016. "Impacts of climate change on Tunisian olive oil output," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 535-549, December.
    5. Sarfo, Isaac & Qiao, Jiajun & Yeboah, Emmanuel & Puplampu, Dzifa Adimle & Kwang, Clement & Fynn, Iris Ekua Mensimah & Batame, Michael & Appea, Emmanuella Aboagye & Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia & Ayelazun, 2024. "Meta-analysis of land use systems development in Africa: Trajectories, implications, adaptive capacity, and future dynamics," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Fonseca Morello, Thiago & Marchetti Ramos, Rossano & O. Anderson, Liana & Owen, Nathan & Rosan, Thais Michele & Steil, Lara, 2020. "Predicting fires for policy making: Improving accuracy of fire brigade allocation in the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Oussama Zouabi, 2021. "Climate change and climate migration: issues and questions around an in-transition Tunisian economy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Chongshi Gu & Xiao Fu & Chenfei Shao & Zhongwen Shi & Huaizhi Su, 2020. "Application of Spatiotemporal Hybrid Model of Deformation in Safety Monitoring of High Arch Dams: A Case Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-25, January.

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