IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v131y2015i4p607-620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy McClanahan
  • Joseph Maina
  • Mebrahtu Ateweberhan

Abstract

Oceanic environmental variables derived from satellites are increasingly being used to predict ecosystem states and climate impacts. Despite the concerted efforts to develop metrics and the urgency to inform policy, management plans, and actions, few metrics have been empirically tested with field data for testing their predictive ability, refinement, and eventual implementation as predictive tools. In this study, the abilities of three variations of a thermal threshold index and a multivariate stress model (MSM) were used to predict coral cover and community susceptibility to bleaching based on a compilation of field data from Indian Ocean reefs across the strong thermal anomaly of 1998. Field data included the relative abundance of coral taxa 10 years before the large-scale temperature anomaly, 2 years after (1999–2000), and during the post-bleaching recovery period (2001–2005) were tested against 1) a multivariate model based on 11 environmental variables used to predict stress or environmental exposure (MSM), 2) estimates of the time until the current mean maximum temperature becomes the mean summer condition (TtT), 3) the Cumulative Thermal Stress (CTS) for the full satellite record, and 4) the 1998 Annual Thermal Stress (1998 ATS). The MSM showed significant fit with the post-1998 cover and susceptibility of the coral community taxa (r 2 = 0.50 and 0.31, respectively). Temperature threshold indices were highly variable and had relatively weak or no significant relationships with coral cover and susceptibility. The ecosystem response of coral reefs to climatic and other disturbances is more complex than predicted by models based largely on temperature anomalies and thresholds only. This implies heterogeneous environmental causes and responses to climate disturbances and warming and predictive models should consider a more comprehensive multiple parameter approach. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy McClanahan & Joseph Maina & Mebrahtu Ateweberhan, 2015. "Regional coral responses to climate disturbances and warming is predicted by multivariate stress model and not temperature threshold metrics," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 607-620, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:131:y:2015:i:4:p:607-620
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1399-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-015-1399-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1399-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles R. C. Sheppard, 2003. "Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 425(6955), pages 294-297, September.
    2. Maina, Joseph & Venus, Valentijn & McClanahan, Timothy R. & Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu, 2008. "Modelling susceptibility of coral reefs to environmental stress using remote sensing data and GIS models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 180-199.
    3. John F Bruno & Elizabeth R Selig, 2007. "Regional Decline of Coral Cover in the Indo-Pacific: Timing, Extent, and Subregional Comparisons," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-8, August.
    4. Jos C Mieog & Jeanine L Olsen & Ray Berkelmans & Silvia A Bleuler-Martinez & Bette L Willis & Madeleine J H van Oppen, 2009. "The Roles and Interactions of Symbiont, Host and Environment in Defining Coral Fitness," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(7), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Joëlle Gergis & Anthony Fowler, 2009. "A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 343-387, February.
    6. R. van Hooidonk & J. A. Maynard & S. Planes, 2013. "Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 508-511, May.
    7. Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2008. "Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 162-174.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas A J Graham & Tim R McClanahan & M Aaron MacNeil & Shaun K Wilson & Nicholas V C Polunin & Simon Jennings & Pascale Chabanet & Susan Clark & Mark D Spalding & Yves Letourneur & Lionel Bigot & , 2008. "Climate Warming, Marine Protected Areas and the Ocean-Scale Integrity of Coral Reef Ecosystems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(8), pages 1-9, August.
    2. Maina, Joseph & Venus, Valentijn & McClanahan, Timothy R. & Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu, 2008. "Modelling susceptibility of coral reefs to environmental stress using remote sensing data and GIS models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 180-199.
    3. Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2008. "Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 162-174.
    4. Phillip K Lowe & John F Bruno & Elizabeth R Selig & Matthew Spencer, 2011. "Empirical Models of Transitions between Coral Reef States: Effects of Region, Protection, and Environmental Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-15, November.
    5. Yee, Susan Harrell & Santavy, Deborah L. & Barron, Mace G., 2011. "Assessing the effects of disease and bleaching on Florida Keys corals by fitting population models to data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(7), pages 1323-1332.
    6. Paul R. Ehrlich & John Harte, 2018. "Pessimism on the Food Front," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-5, April.
    7. Francis Rathinam & Sayak Khatua & Zeba Siddiqui & Manya Malik & Pallavi Duggal & Samantha Watson & Xavier Vollenweider, 2021. "Using big data for evaluating development outcomes: A systematic map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), September.
    8. Hsiao-Wei Chung & Cheng-Chien Liu, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation of Cold Eddies in the Upwelling Zone off Northeastern Taiwan Revealed by the Geostationary Satellite Imagery of Ocean Color and Sea Surface Temperature," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Selig, Elizabeth R. & Frazier, Melanie & O'Leary, Jennifer K. & Jupiter, Stacy D. & Halpern, Benjamin S. & Longo, Catherine & Kleisner, Kristin L. & Sivo, Loraini & Ranelletti, Marla, 2015. "Measuring indicators of ocean health for an island nation: The ocean health index for Fiji," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 403-412.
    10. Chávez-Jiménez Adriadna & González-Zeas Dunia & Buguña Nilton & Martínez Angela, 2018. "The Role of Regulation in Meeting Water Demands under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 4031-4044, September.
    11. Julie Vercelloni & M Julian Caley & Mohsen Kayal & Samantha Low-Choy & Kerrie Mengersen, 2014. "Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-9, November.
    12. Elena Esposito, 2018. "Side Effects of Immunity: The Rise of African Slavery in the US South," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    13. Shannon G. Klein & Cassandra Roch & Carlos M. Duarte, 2024. "Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    14. Yongxiang Zhang & Hongli Wang & Xuemei Shao & Jinbao Li & Guoyu Ren, 2022. "Extreme drought events diagnosed along the Yellow River and the adjacent area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Milena Arias Schreiber & Miguel Ñiquen & Marilú Bouchon, 2011. "Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(6), pages 1-24, June.
    16. Feng Chen & Hadad Martín & Xiaoen Zhao & Fidel Roig & Heli Zhang & Shijie Wang & Weipeng Yue & Youping Chen, 2022. "Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Alleyne, Dillon & Gomes, Charmaine & Lorde, Troy & Phillips, Willard, 2013. "An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38519, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. David J. Nash & Kathleen Pribyl & Jørgen Klein & Raphael Neukom & Georgina H. Endfield & George C. D. Adamson & Dominic R. Kniveton, 2016. "Seasonal rainfall variability in southeast Africa during the nineteenth century reconstructed from documentary sources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 605-619, February.
    19. J. J. Adolfo Tortolero-Langarica & Alma P. Rodríguez-Troncoso & Amílcar L. Cupul-Magaña & Baruch Rinkevich, 2020. "Micro-Fragmentation as an Effective and Applied Tool to Restore Remote Reefs in the Eastern Tropical Pacific," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-18, September.
    20. Xu, Peng & Huang, Lintao & Zhang, Yuyang & Huang, Hui, 2024. "Different degrees of decline in China's fishing efforts are beneficial to the sustainable development of coral reef fisheries resources on Yongxing Island China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 494(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:131:y:2015:i:4:p:607-620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.