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Spatiotemporal shifts of population and war under climate change in imperial China

Author

Listed:
  • Shengda Zhang

    (Guangzhou University)

  • David Dian Zhang

    (Guangzhou University)

  • Qing Pei

    (The Education University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

Studies on the spatiotemporal relationship between historical climate change and the patterns of population and war are rare. In this research, statistical methods (such as correlation test and Granger causality analysis) and visualization technique are applied to demonstrate how temperature, in terms of long-term trend and cyclic mode, fundamentally affects the temporal-spatial variations of population center and war center during imperial China (5–1911 CE). Results show that (1) the consistent southward migration of population center and war center overall accords with the macro-trend of temperature cooling over the last two millennia. (2) The extent of the outward expansion of the Chinese Empire is measured by the population center–war center distance that lengthens during warm periods but shortens in cold phases, which correspond to the north/west/northwestward advancement and south/east/eastward retreatment of war center, respectively, while population center moves within a small range. (3) The shift of population latitude precedes that of war latitude, indicating the change from ecological-demographic to social-political sphere in space. We suggest that similar to population center, the temperature-influenced ancient Hu Line, which symbolizes the disparity of population density in different regions of China, may shift by several hundred kilometers; latitudinal rather than longitudinal variations of population center and war center are more robust in history. We also find that precipitation controls war center and population center on the multicentennial scale, but not the scale focused upon in this study. These findings provide new insights and theoretical implications into the in-depth understanding of the nature–human nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Shengda Zhang & David Dian Zhang & Qing Pei, 2021. "Spatiotemporal shifts of population and war under climate change in imperial China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:165:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03042-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03042-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jingyun Zheng & Lingbo Xiao & Xiuqi Fang & Zhixin Hao & Quansheng Ge & Beibei Li, 2014. "How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 169-182, November.
    2. Qiang Chen, 2015. "Climate Shocks, State Capacity and Peasant Uprisings in North China during 25–1911 ce," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 295-318, April.
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    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    6. Harry Lee & David Zhang, 2013. "A tale of two population crises in recent Chinese history," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 285-308, January.
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