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Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain

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  • Rosmeri Rocha
  • Michelle Reboita
  • Lívia Dutra
  • Marta Llopart
  • Erika Coppola

Abstract

Interannual variability over South America (SA) is mainly controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This study investigates the ENSO precipitation signal during austral spring (September–October–November-SON) over SA. Three global circulation models-GCMs-(MPI, GFDL and HadGEM2) are used for RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) downscaling of the present (1975–2005) near-future (2020–2050) and far-future (2070–2098) climates using two greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the present climate, only HadGEM2 simulates a frequency of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years similar to the observations. In terms of ENSO frequency changes, only in the far-future RCP8.5 climate there is greater agreement among GCMs, indicating an increase (decrease) of EN (LN) years. In the present climate, validation indicates that only the RegCM4 ensemble mean provides acceptable precipitation biases (smaller than ±20 %) in the two investigated regions. In this period, the GCMs and RegCM4 agree on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in SA, i.e., both are able to capture the observed regions of positive/negative rainfall anomalies during EN years, with RegCM4 improving on the GCMs’ signal over southeastern SA. For the near and far future climates, in general, the projections indicate an increase (decrease) of precipitation over southeastern SA (northern-northeastern SA). However, the relationship between ENSO and rainfall in most of RegCM4 and GCM members is weaker in the near and far future climates than in the present day climate. This is likely connected with the GCMs’ projection of the more intense ENSO signal displaced to the central basin of Pacific Ocean in the far future compared to present climate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rosmeri Rocha & Michelle Reboita & Lívia Dutra & Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola, 2014. "Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 95-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y
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    1. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 109-110, August.
    2. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2, May.
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    1. Janaína Cassiano Santos & Gustavo Bastos Lyra & Marcel Carvalho Abreu & José Francisco Oliveira-Júnior & Leonardo Bohn & Gisleine Cunha-Zeri & Marcelo Zeri, 2022. "Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2531-2558, April.
    2. Rafael J. R. Batista & Fabio L. T. Gonçalves & Rosmeri P. Rocha, 2016. "Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 439-454, August.
    3. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.

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