IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v123y2014i1p11-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate science in climate security scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Kirsty Lewis

Abstract

The climate is changing and this will have consequences across the globe, affecting all areas of the natural and human environment in complex ways. One tool for exploring the complex relationship between climate change and security is to use a scenariobased approach as means to develop plausible rather than probable narratives. This approach can explore the range of uncertainty, and help policymakers to visualise the potential consequences of climate change. Scenario methodology has been most comprehensively developed for use in business planning and there are some differences in the way scenarios work for climate security. The most notable is the fact that there is a physical modelling basis for climate projections. This means that the uncertainty range associated with at least this one aspect of the scenario can be systematically sampled. This paper reviews how scenarios have been used in the climate security literature to date, in particular in the grey literature. The integration of climate projections is explored in detail, as the main distinguishing feature of climate security scenarios over other scenario types. Few climate security scenarios have been developed to date, but all those included in this review, regardless of the differences in national conditions, regional climate change and potential responses, came to very similar conclusions. This was despite differences in the changes in climate and non-climate drivers, or differences in the scenario approach and audience. A more systematic and scientific approach to developing the scenario drivers and narratives is recommended, and successfully embedding changes in climate within the socio-economic context, through better integration of inter-disciplinary expertise, is critical. Copyright Crown Copyright 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsty Lewis, 2014. "Climate science in climate security scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 11-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:1:p:11-22
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0945-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0945-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0945-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucia De Stefano & James Duncan & Shlomi Dinar & Kerstin Stahl & Kenneth M Strzepek & Aaron T Wolf, 2012. "Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 193-209, January.
    2. Thomas Bernauer & Tobias Siegfried, 2012. "Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 227-239, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. François Gemenne & Jon Barnett & W. Adger & Geoffrey Dabelko, 2014. "Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 1-9, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dinar, Shlomi & Katz, David & De Stefano, Lucia & Blankespoor, Brian, 2014. "Climate change, conflict, and cooperation : global analysis of the resilience of international river treaties to increased water variability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6916, The World Bank.
    2. Lea Melnikovová, 2017. "Can Game Theory Help to Mitigate Water Conflicts in the Syrdarya Basin?," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 1393-1401.
    3. Lee, Seung Oh & Jung, Younghun, 2018. "Efficiency of water use and its implications for a water-food nexus in the Aral Sea Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 80-90.
    4. Vinokurov, Evgeny & Libman, Alexander, 2017. "Eurasian integration and its institutions: possible contributions to security in Eurasia," MPRA Paper 83021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman, 2016. "Projecting River Basin Resilience in the Zambezi River Basin through Global Analyses and Basin Realities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1987-2003, April.
    6. Fabio Farinosi & Carlo Giupponi & Arnaud Reynaud & Guido Ceccherini & César Carmona-Moreno & A.P.J. de Roo & D Gonzalez-Sanchez & Giovanni Bidoglio, 2018. "An innovative approach to the assessment of hydro-political risk: A spatially explicit, data driven indicator of hydro-political issues," Post-Print hal-02100434, HAL.
    7. Shan Zou & Abuduwaili Jilili & Weili Duan & Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde, 2019. "Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu & Weijun He, 2016. "Allocating Water under Bankruptcy Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(11), pages 3949-3964, September.
    9. Ansink, Erik & Houba, Harold, 2016. "Sustainable agreements on stochastic river flow," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 92-117.
    10. Erik Ansink & Hans-Peter Weikard, 2015. "Composition properties in the river claims problem," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 44(4), pages 807-831, April.
    11. Brian Blankespoor & Alan Basist & Ariel Dinar & Shlomi Dinar & Harold Houba & Neil Thomas, 2014. "Assessing the Economic and Political Impacts of Climate Change on International River Basins using Surface Wetness in the Zambezi and Mekong Basins," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-005/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu & Weijun He & Liang Yuan, 2017. "Monotonic Bargaining Solution for Allocating Critically Scarce Transboundary Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2627-2644, July.
    13. Erik Ansink & Harold Houba, 2014. "The Economics of Transboundary River Management," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-132/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu & Weijun He & Liang Yuan & Jian Hua Zhao, 2016. "Water Allocation in Transboundary River Basins under Water Scarcity: a Cooperative Bargaining Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4451-4466, September.
    15. Hojjat Mianabadi & Erik Mostert & Saket Pande & Nick van de Giesen, 2015. "Weighted Bankruptcy Rules and Transboundary Water Resources Allocation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2303-2321, May.
    16. Simon Tilleard & James Ford, 2016. "Adaptation readiness and adaptive capacity of transboundary river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 575-591, August.
    17. Mark Giordano & Alena Drieschova & James Duncan & Yoshiko Sayama & Lucia De Stefano & Aaron Wolf, 2014. "A review of the evolution and state of transboundary freshwater treaties," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 245-264, September.
    18. Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman & Itay Fischhendler, 2018. "The weakness of the strong: re-examining power in transboundary water dynamics," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-294, April.
    19. Christopher White & Trevor Tanton & David Rycroft, 2014. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5267-5281, December.
    20. Giorgos Kallis & Christos Zografos, 2014. "Hydro-climatic change, conflict and security," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 69-82, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:123:y:2014:i:1:p:11-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.