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The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

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Listed:
  • Dáithí Stone
  • Maximilian Auffhammer
  • Mark Carey
  • Gerrit Hansen
  • Christian Huggel
  • Wolfgang Cramer
  • David Lobell
  • Ulf Molau
  • Andrew Solow
  • Lourdes Tibig
  • Gary Yohe

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has triggered impacts on natural and human systems world-wide, yet the formal scientific method of detection and attribution has been only insufficiently described. Detection and attribution of impacts of climate change is a fundamentally cross-disciplinary issue, involving concepts, terms, and standards spanning the varied requirements of the various disciplines. Key problems for current assessments include the limited availability of long-term observations, the limited knowledge on processes and mechanisms involved in changing environmental systems, and the widely different concepts applied in the scientific literature. In order to facilitate current and future assessments, this paper describes the current conceptual framework of the field and outlines a number of conceptual challenges. Based on this, it proposes workable cross-disciplinary definitions, concepts, and standards. The paper is specifically intended to serve as a baseline for continued development of a consistent cross-disciplinary framework that will facilitate integrated assessment of the detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Mark Carey & Gerrit Hansen & Christian Huggel & Wolfgang Cramer & David Lobell & Ulf Molau & Andrew Solow & Lourdes Tibig & Gary Yohe, 2013. "The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 381-395, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:2:p:381-395
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0873-6
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    1. Jianguo Wu, 2016. "Detection and attribution of the effects of climate change on bat distributions over the last 50 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 681-696, February.
    2. Asya Dimitrova & Anna Dimitrova & Matthias Mengel & Antonio Gasparrini & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Sabine Gabrysch, 2024. "Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. David García-del-Amo & P. Graham Mortyn & Victoria Reyes-García, 2020. "Including indigenous and local knowledge in climate research: an assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 67-88, May.
    4. Jianguo Wu, 2016. "Detection and attribution of the effects of climate change on bat distributions over the last 50 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 681-696, February.
    5. Christian Huggel & Dáithí Stone & Hajo Eicken & Gerrit Hansen, 2015. "Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 453-467, December.
    6. Li Gao & Xin Wen & Yuntong Guo & Tianming Gao & Yi Wang & Lei Shen, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Variability of Carbon Flux from Different Land Use and Land Cover Changes: A Case Study in Hubei Province, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Allen Thompson & Friederike Otto, 2015. "Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 439-451, December.
    8. Dominic Roser & Christian Huggel & Markus Ohndorf & Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, 2015. "Advancing the interdisciplinary dialogue on climate justice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 349-359, December.
    9. Assuntina Cembalo & Rosaria Lombardo & Eric J. Beh & Gianpaolo Romano & Michele Ferrucci & Francesca M. Pisano, 2021. "Assessment of Climate Change in Italy by Variants of Ordered Correspondence Analysis," Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, 2015. "Justice for climate loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 469-480, December.
    11. Olga Nasonova & Yeugeniy Gusev & Evgeny Kovalev, 2023. "Detection and attribution of changes in streamflow and snowpack in Arctic river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-23, November.
    12. Nelson Chanza & Walter Musakwa, 2022. "Indigenous local observations and experiences can give useful indicators of climate change in data-deficient regions," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 12(3), pages 534-546, September.
    13. Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Jinlong Huang & Yanjun Wang & Simon Treu & Fushuang Jiang & Shan Jiang & Han Jiang, 2024. "Attribution of streamflow changes during 1961–2019 in the Upper Yangtze and the Upper Yellow River basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(4), pages 1-20, April.

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