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Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

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  • Terry Barker
  • Douglas Crawford-Brown

Abstract

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010 ) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Barker & Douglas Crawford-Brown, 2013. "Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 129-138, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:2:p:129-138
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0855-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Terry Barker and Katie Jenkins, 2007. "The Costs of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change: Estimates Derived from a Meta-Analysis of the Literature," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-02, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    2. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    3. Terry Barker & Jonathan Köhler & Marcelo Villena, 2002. "Costs of greenhouse gas abatement: meta-analysis of post-SRES mitigation scenarios," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 5(2), pages 135-166, June.
    4. Terry Barker & S. Serban Scrieciu & Tim Foxon, 2008. "Achieving the G8 50% target: modelling induced and accelerated technological change using the macro-econometric model E3MG," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(sup1), pages 30-45, December.
    5. Button, Kenneth & Nijkamp, Peter, 1997. "Environmental Policy Assessment and the Usefulness of Meta-analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 231-240, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    2. Alexander R. Barron & Allen A. Fawcett & Marc A. C. Hafstead & James R. Mcfarland & Adele C. Morris, 2018. "Policy Insights From The Emf 32 Study On U.S. Carbon Tax Scenarios," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-47, February.
    3. Massimo Tavoni & Richard Tol, 2013. "Counting only the hits—a rejoinder," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 139-141, November.

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