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Violent Physical Bullying Victimization at School: Has There Been a Recent Increase in Exposure or Intensity? An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis in the United States, 1991 to 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang Fu

    (The University of British Columbia)

  • Kenneth C. Land

    (Duke University)

  • Vicki L. Lamb

    (North Carolina Central University)

Abstract

Using data from an annual nationally representative survey of U.S. 8th, 10th, and 12th graders from 1991 to 2012, this paper applies a new two-step method to study trends in self-reports of victimization during the last year from four forms of violent bullying at school (threatened without injury, threatened with a weapon, injury without a weapon, injury with a weapon). First, we develop a statistical algorithm for estimating, for each school year, the exposure probability (likelihood or risk of being victimized) and intensity rate (rate of victimization among those exposed to the risk of being victimized) parameters of zero-inflated Poisson models of truncated and combined self-reported victimization frequency data for the four forms of violent bullying. Estimates of both the exposure to, and intensity of, the self-reported frequencies for each the four forms for each of the grades show increases into the middle part of the 2000–2010 decade with slight declines in the years 2008–2012. Exceptions are found for intensity rates of threats without injury and threats with a weapon among 12th graders. Second, age-period-cohort analysis was applied to the estimated exposure and intensity parameters of violent bullying victimization. This analysis reveals: (1) that both the exposure probabilities and intensity rates decrease from the 8th (typically 13–14 year olds) to the 10th (typically 15–16 year olds) to the 12grades (typically 17–18 years old); (2) that the school years 2006 to 2012 were associated with decreases in time period exposure probabilities and increases in intensity rates - fewer students victimized per school year but those who are victimized are victimized more frequently; and (3) that birth cohorts born since the late-1980s had decreases in intensity rates, but their exposure probabilities increased until the most recent (1995–1996) cohorts for which the exposure probabilities have stabilized or declined.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Fu & Kenneth C. Land & Vicki L. Lamb, 2016. "Violent Physical Bullying Victimization at School: Has There Been a Recent Increase in Exposure or Intensity? An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis in the United States, 1991 to 2012," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 9(2), pages 485-513, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:chinre:v:9:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s12187-015-9317-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12187-015-9317-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Browning & Ian Crawford & Marike Knoef, 2012. "The age-period cohort problem: set identification and point identification," CeMMAP working papers 02/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Jackman, Simon, 2008. "Regression Models for Count Data in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i08).
    3. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, March.
    4. Fu, Wenjiang J. & Hall, Peter, 2006. "Asymptotic properties of estimators in age-period-cohort analysis," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(17), pages 1925-1929, November.
    5. Wenjiang J. Fu & Kenneth C. Land & Yang Yang, 2011. "On the Intrinsic Estimator and Constrained Estimators in Age-Period-Cohort Models," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 40(3), pages 453-466, August.
    6. Wenjiang J. Fu, 2008. "A Smoothing Cohort Model in Age–Period–Cohort Analysis With Applications to Homicide Arrest Rates and Lung Cancer Mortality Rates," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 327-361, February.
    7. Michal Molcho & Wendy Craig & Pernille Due & William Pickett & Yossi Harel-Fisch & Mary Overpeck, 2009. "Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994–2006: findings from Europe and North America," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 54(2), pages 225-234, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Fu & Xin Guo & Kenneth C. Land, 2020. "Optimizing Count Responses in Surveys: A Machine-learning Approach," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 49(3), pages 637-671, August.

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