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A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India

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  • Jihye Kim

    (University of Manchester)

  • Wendy Olsen

    (University of Manchester)

  • Arkadiusz Wiśniowski

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

Child labour in India involves the largest number of children in any single country in the world. In 2011, 11.8 million children between the ages of 5 and 17 were main workers (those working more than 6 mo) according to the Indian Census. Our estimate of child labour using a combined-data approach is slightly higher than that: 13.2 million (11.4–15.2 million) for ages 5 to 17. There are various opinions on how best to measure the prevalence of child labour. In this study, we use the International Labour Organization (ILO)‘s methodology to define hazardousness and combine it with the most recent United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)‘s time thresholds for economic work and household chores. The specific aims of this study are to estimate the prevalence of child labour in the age group 5 to 17 and to suggest a combined-data approach using Bayesian inference to improve the accuracy of the child labour estimation. This study combines the National Sample Survey on Employment and Unemployment 2011/12 and the India Human Development Survey 2011/12 and compares the result with the reported figures for the incidence of child labour from the Indian Census. Our unique combined-data approach provides a way to improve accuracy, smooth the variations between ages and provide reliable estimates of the scale of child labour in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Jihye Kim & Wendy Olsen & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2020. "A Bayesian Estimation of Child Labour in India," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 13(6), pages 1975-2001, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:chinre:v:13:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s12187-020-09740-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s12187-020-09740-w
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    Cited by:

    1. Jihye Kim & Wendy Olsen & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2023. "Predicting Child-Labour Risks by Norms in India," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 37(6), pages 1605-1626, December.
    2. Kazi Abusaleh & M. Rezaul Islam & Md. Mokter Ali & Mohammad Asif Khan & Md. Shahinuzzaman & Md. Imdadul Haque, 2022. "Prevalence of Economic Exploitations and Their Determinants Among Child Labourers in Dhaka City, Bangladesh: A Mixed-Method Study," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(1), pages 87-106, February.
    3. Owen Davis & Siavash Radpour, 2021. "Dissecting the Pandemic Retirement Surge," SCEPA publication series. 2021-05, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

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