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Electricity consumption prediction using artificial intelligence

Author

Listed:
  • Tomaž Čegovnik

    (3Tav d.o.o.)

  • Andrej Dobrovoljc

    (Razvojni center Novo mesto)

  • Janez Povh

    (Razvojni center Novo mesto, Slovenija Univerza v Ljubljani)

  • Matic Rogar

    (Univerza v Ljubljani)

  • Pavel Tomšič

    (Univerza v Ljubljani, Fakulteta za strojništvo)

Abstract

The measurement of electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity, including for households, is increasingly mandated in the EU and this also allows, once sufficient data have been collected, the prediction of future consumption at the same time intervals. In this paper, we present preliminary results of the industry project that aims to build AI models for next-day electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity. We have identified the main influencing factors, developed scripts and databases to collect data about these features and about the past electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity for each measuring point, and, finally, developed three AI models to predict the future electricity consumption for each 15-minute interval and each measurement point. We provide descriptive analyses for all measuring points that were in the database in April 2022 and show that for computing the prediction of accumulated electricity consumption at 15-minute granularity, it is much more accurate (in terms of mean absolute percentage error – MAPE) to compute the prediction for each measuring point and accumulate these predictions. An evaluation of the models on the list of the 10 outstanding measuring points (according to the data provider) shows that our predictions achieve very good MAPE. Additionally, we have provided an evaluation of possible ways of parallelization within R, and laid out results of a computational study using parallel, doParallel, and foreach R libraries.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomaž Čegovnik & Andrej Dobrovoljc & Janez Povh & Matic Rogar & Pavel Tomšič, 2023. "Electricity consumption prediction using artificial intelligence," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(3), pages 833-851, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:31:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10100-023-00844-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-023-00844-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    2. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
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