IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v14y2021i18p5947-d638858.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Machine Learning and Data Segmentation for Building Energy Use Prediction—A Comparative Study

Author

Listed:
  • William Mounter

    (School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technology (SCEDT), Teesside University, Middlesbrough TS1 3BA, UK)

  • Chris Ogwumike

    (School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technology (SCEDT), Teesside University, Middlesbrough TS1 3BA, UK)

  • Huda Dawood

    (School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technology (SCEDT), Teesside University, Middlesbrough TS1 3BA, UK)

  • Nashwan Dawood

    (School of Computing, Engineering and Digital Technology (SCEDT), Teesside University, Middlesbrough TS1 3BA, UK)

Abstract

Advances in metering technologies and emerging energy forecast strategies provide opportunities and challenges for predicting both short and long-term building energy usage. Machine learning is an important energy prediction technique, and is significantly gaining research attention. The use of different machine learning techniques based on a rolling-horizon framework can help to reduce the prediction error over time. Due to the significant increases in error beyond short-term energy forecasts, most reported energy forecasts based on statistical and machine learning techniques are within the range of one week. The aim of this study was to investigate how facility managers can improve the accuracy of their building’s long-term energy forecasts. This paper presents an extensive study of machine learning and data processing techniques and how they can more accurately predict within different forecast ranges. The Clarendon building of Teesside University was selected as a case study to demonstrate the prediction of overall energy usage with different machine learning techniques such as polynomial regression (PR), support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This study further examined how preprocessing training data for prediction models can impact the overall accuracy, such as via segmenting the training data by building modes (active and dormant), or by days of the week (weekdays and weekends). The results presented in this paper illustrate a significant reduction in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for segmented building (weekday and weekend) energy usage prediction when compared to unsegmented monthly predictions. A reduction in MAPE of 5.27%, 11.45%, and 12.03% was achieved with PR, SVR and ANN, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • William Mounter & Chris Ogwumike & Huda Dawood & Nashwan Dawood, 2021. "Machine Learning and Data Segmentation for Building Energy Use Prediction—A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-42, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:18:p:5947-:d:638858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5947/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/18/5947/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bui, Dac-Khuong & Nguyen, Tuan Ngoc & Ngo, Tuan Duc & Nguyen-Xuan, H., 2020. "An artificial neural network (ANN) expert system enhanced with the electromagnetism-based firefly algorithm (EFA) for predicting the energy consumption in buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    2. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian, 2020. "Machine-learning based hybrid demand-side controller for high-rise office buildings with high energy flexibilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    3. Ahmad, Tanveer & Chen, Huanxin & Huang, Ronggeng & Yabin, Guo & Wang, Jiangyu & Shair, Jan & Azeem Akram, Hafiz Muhammad & Hassnain Mohsan, Syed Agha & Kazim, Muhammad, 2018. "Supervised based machine learning models for short, medium and long-term energy prediction in distinct building environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 17-32.
    4. Wang, Zhe & Hong, Tianzhen & Piette, Mary Ann, 2020. "Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    5. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    6. Reynolds, Jonathan & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan & Piriou, Solène, 2018. "A zone-level, building energy optimisation combining an artificial neural network, a genetic algorithm, and model predictive control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 729-739.
    7. Chen, Yongbao & Xu, Peng & Chu, Yiyi & Li, Weilin & Wu, Yuntao & Ni, Lizhou & Bao, Yi & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Short-term electrical load forecasting using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 659-670.
    8. Yang, Youlong & Che, Jinxing & Deng, Chengzhi & Li, Li, 2019. "Sequential grid approach based support vector regression for short-term electric load forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1010-1021.
    9. Koschwitz, D. & Frisch, J. & van Treeck, C., 2018. "Data-driven heating and cooling load predictions for non-residential buildings based on support vector machine regression and NARX Recurrent Neural Network: A comparative study on district scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 134-142.
    10. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Zhao, Yang & Song, Mengjie & Wang, Jiayuan, 2019. "Deep learning-based feature engineering methods for improved building energy prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 35-45.
    11. Volker Liermann & Sangmeng Li, 2021. "Methods of Machine Learning," Springer Books, in: Volker Liermann & Claus Stegmann (ed.), The Digital Journey of Banking and Insurance, Volume III, pages 225-238, Springer.
    12. Li, Yanying & Che, Jinxing & Yang, Youlong, 2018. "Subsampled support vector regression ensemble for short term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 160-170.
    13. Chen, Yibo & Tan, Hongwei, 2017. "Short-term prediction of electric demand in building sector via hybrid support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1363-1374.
    14. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    15. Zhong, Hai & Wang, Jiajun & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei & Lv, Shilei, 2019. "Vector field-based support vector regression for building energy consumption prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 403-414.
    16. Ciulla, G. & D'Amico, A., 2019. "Building energy performance forecasting: A multiple linear regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Ahmed Gassar, Abdo Abdullah & Yun, Geun Young & Kim, Sumin, 2019. "Data-driven approach to prediction of residential energy consumption at urban scales in London," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tamás Storcz & Géza Várady & István Kistelegdi & Zsolt Ercsey, 2023. "Regression Models and Shape Descriptors for Building Energy Demand and Comfort Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Rubens A. Fernandes & Raimundo C. S. Gomes & Carlos T. Costa & Celso Carvalho & Neilson L. Vilaça & Lennon B. F. Nascimento & Fabricio R. Seppe & Israel G. Torné & Heitor L. N. da Silva, 2023. "A Demand Forecasting Strategy Based on a Retrofit Architecture for Remote Monitoring of Legacy Building Circuits," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-37, July.
    3. Yuliia Trach & Roman Trach & Marek Kalenik & Eugeniusz Koda & Anna Podlasek, 2021. "A Study of Dispersed, Thermally Activated Limestone from Ukraine for the Safe Liming of Water Using ANN Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Alberto Barbaresi & Mattia Ceccarelli & Giulia Menichetti & Daniele Torreggiani & Patrizia Tassinari & Marco Bovo, 2022. "Application of Machine Learning Models for Fast and Accurate Predictions of Building Energy Need," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yibo & Zhang, Fengyi & Berardi, Umberto, 2020. "Day-ahead prediction of hourly subentry energy consumption in the building sector using pattern recognition algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Sarhang Sorguli & Husam Rjoub, 2023. "A Novel Energy Accounting Model Using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine—Recurrent Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Marek Borowski & Klaudia Zwolińska, 2020. "Prediction of Cooling Energy Consumption in Hotel Building Using Machine Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Gao, Lei & Liu, Tianyuan & Cao, Tao & Hwang, Yunho & Radermacher, Reinhard, 2021. "Comparing deep learning models for multi energy vectors prediction on multiple types of building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    9. Fan, Cheng & Sun, Yongjun & Xiao, Fu & Ma, Jie & Lee, Dasheng & Wang, Jiayuan & Tseng, Yen Chieh, 2020. "Statistical investigations of transfer learning-based methodology for short-term building energy predictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    10. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    11. Li, Sihui & Peng, Jinqing & Zou, Bin & Li, Bojia & Lu, Chujie & Cao, Jingyu & Luo, Yimo & Ma, Tao, 2021. "Zero energy potential of photovoltaic direct-driven air conditioners with considering the load flexibility of air conditioners," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    12. Haizhou Fang & Hongwei Tan & Ningfang Dai & Zhaohui Liu & Risto Kosonen, 2023. "Hourly Building Energy Consumption Prediction Using a Training Sample Selection Method Based on Key Feature Search," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Jiang, Feifeng & Ma, Jun & Li, Zheng & Ding, Yuexiong, 2022. "Prediction of energy use intensity of urban buildings using the semi-supervised deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    14. Sun, Jian & Liu, Gang & Sun, Boyang & Xiao, Gang, 2021. "Light-stacking strengthened fusion based building energy consumption prediction framework via variable weight feature selection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    15. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    17. Jason Runge & Radu Zmeureanu, 2021. "A Review of Deep Learning Techniques for Forecasting Energy Use in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-26, January.
    18. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Zhang, Yuhang & Zhang, Yi & Yi Zhang, & Zhang, Chengxu, 2022. "Effect of physical, environmental, and social factors on prediction of building energy consumption for public buildings based on real-world big data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    20. Gao, Datong & Zhao, Bin & Kwan, Trevor Hocksun & Hao, Yong & Pei, Gang, 2022. "The spatial and temporal mismatch phenomenon in solar space heating applications: status and solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:18:p:5947-:d:638858. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.