IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/apjors/v7y2023i2d10.1007_s41685-022-00264-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of climate change on paddy yields in different climatic zones of Sri Lanka: a panel data approach

Author

Listed:
  • Chamila Kumari Chandrasiri

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Takuji W. Tsusaka

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Tien D. N. Ho

    (Tien Giang University)

  • Farhad Zulfiqar

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

  • Avishek Datta

    (Asian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

While climate change affects agricultural production globally, scarce literature has quantified the impacts of climatic factors on paddy yields with attention to specific water regimes, climatic zones, growth periods, and crop seasons. This study aimed to identify the effects of various climatic variables at different plant growth phases (growing and harvesting), crop seasons (Maha and Yala) [In Sri Lanka, there are two main crop seasons. Maha is the major cultivation season covering the months of October to March, and Yala is the minor cultivation season covering the months of April to September], and water regimes (major irrigation, minor irrigation, and rainfed) in three climatic zones (dry zone, intermediate zone, and wet zone) of Sri Lanka. A district-wise annual panel dataset was constructed for a 39-year period (1981 to 2019) covering 18 districts and analyzed by panel regression methods. The results showed that temperature had significant non-linear effects on yields in the dry and intermediate zones. Variation in temperature decreased yields more in the dry zone than in other zones. Rainfall significantly reduced yields in the dry and wet zones, whereas it increased yields in the intermediate zone. Rainfall fluctuations decreased yields in the wet zone more than in other zones. These findings suggest a need for dissemination of climate-smart agriculture practices by considering the characteristics of each water regime, particularly in the dry zone. For rainfed paddies, a crop insurance scheme should be introduced to reduce crop losses due to harsh climatic events. Complementary policies, such as improvement of irrigation systems and provision of timely weather forecasts, can support smallholder paddy farming.

Suggested Citation

  • Chamila Kumari Chandrasiri & Takuji W. Tsusaka & Tien D. N. Ho & Farhad Zulfiqar & Avishek Datta, 2023. "Impacts of climate change on paddy yields in different climatic zones of Sri Lanka: a panel data approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 455-489, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:7:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-022-00264-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s41685-022-00264-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s41685-022-00264-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s41685-022-00264-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iftekhar Uddin Ahmed Chowdhury & Mohammad Abul Earshad Khan, 2015. "The impact of climate change on rice yield in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, CyberLeninka;Редакция журнала Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, vol. 40(4), pages 12-28.
    2. Mohamed Esham & Brent Jacobs & Hewage Sunith Rohitha Rosairo & Balde Boubacar Siddighi, 2018. "Climate change and food security: a Sri Lankan perspective," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1017-1036, June.
    3. ALI, Essossinam, 2018. "Impact of Climate Variability on Staple Food Crops Production in Northern Togo," MPRA Paper 91972, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2018.
    4. Ruttan, Vernon W., 1987. "Induced innovation and agricultural development," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 196-216, August.
    5. Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Devkota, Niranjan & Paija, Nirash, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Production: Evidence from Nepal," Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA), vol. 17(2), December.
    7. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    8. Josephson, Anna Leigh & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2014. "How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 142-152.
    9. Afzal, Muhammad & Ahmed, Gulzar & Javaid, Muhammad Nadeem, 2017. "Empirical Asessment Of Climate Change On Agricultural Crops: Panel Data Analysis In Pakistan," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    10. Chatura Sewwandi Wijetunga & Katsuhiro Saito, 2017. "Evaluating the Fertilizer Subsidy Reforms in the Rice Production Sector in Sri Lanka: A Simulation Analysis," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-3.
    11. Nuwan Abeywardana & Brigitta Schütt & Thusitha Wagalawatta & Wiebke Bebermeier, 2019. "Indigenous Agricultural Systems in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka: Management Transformation Assessment and Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Pushp Kumar & Naresh Chandra Sahu & Mohd Arshad Ansari & Siddharth Kumar, 2021. "Climate change and rice production in India: role of ecological and carbon footprint," Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 260-278, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nazaire Houssou & Michael Johnson & Shashidhara Kolavalli & Collins Asante-Addo, 2018. "Changes in Ghanaian farming systems: stagnation or a quiet transformation?," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 35(1), pages 41-66, March.
    2. Kyalo Willy, Daniel & Muyanga, Milu & Jayne, Thomas, 2019. "Can economic and environmental benefits associated with agricultural intensification be sustained at high population densities? A farm level empirical analysis," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 100-110.
    3. Melvani, Kamal & Myers, the Late Bronwyn & Stacey, Natasha & Bristow, Mila & Crase, Beth & Moles, Jerry, 2022. "Farmers’ values for land, trees and biodiversity underlie agricultural sustainability," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Chandio, Abbas Ali & Dash, Devi Prasad & Nathaniel, Solomon Prince & Sargani, Ghulam Raza & Jiang, Yuansheng, 2023. "Mitigation pathways towards climate change: Modelling the impact of climatological factors on wheat production in top six regions of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    5. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    7. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Yiyong Cai, 2014. "The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 451-465.
    8. Rosa Carbonell-Bojollo & Oscar Veroz-Gonzalez & Rafaela Ordoñez-Fernandez & Manuel Moreno-Garcia & Gottlieb Basch & Amir Kassam & Miguel A. Repullo-Ruiberriz de Torres & Emilio J. Gonzalez-Sanchez, 2019. "The Effect of Conservation Agriculture and Environmental Factors on CO 2 Emissions in a Rainfed Crop Rotation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda Nduka Okolo-Obasi & Simplice Anutechia Asongu, 2021. "Analysis of farmers’ food price volatility and Nigeria’s growth enhancement support scheme," African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 463-478, June.
    10. Tim J. Coelli & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: a Malmquist index analysis of 93 countries, 1980–2000," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 115-134, January.
    11. repec:ags:ijag24:346816 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine & Patel, Pralit & Abigail, Snyder & Wise, Marshall & Waldhoff, Stephanie & Hejazi, Mohamad & Edmonds, James, 2021. "Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets," Conference papers 333245, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Marcos-Martinez, Raymundo & Measham, Thomas G. & Fleming-Muñoz, David A., 2019. "Economic impacts of early unconventional gas mining: Lessons from the coal seam gas industry in New South Wales, Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 338-346.
    14. Qiang Wang & Yuanfan Li & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across 214 countries: the impacts of 12 economic, institutional, technological, resource, and social factors," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    15. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    16. Joseph I. Uduji & Elda N. Okolo-Obasi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Analysis of Farmers’ Food Price Volatility and Nigeria’s Growth Enhancement Support Scheme," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/069, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    17. Janusz Prusiński & Radosław Nowicki, 2020. "Effect of planting density and row spacing on the yielding of soybean (Glycine max L. Merrill)," Plant, Soil and Environment, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(12), pages 616-623.
    18. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    19. Nancy McCarthy & Talip Kilic & Alejandro de la Fuente & Joshua M. Brubaker, 2018. "Shelter from the Storm? Household-Level Impacts of, and Responses to, the 2015 Floods in Malawi," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 237-258, October.
    20. Alan Randall, 1978. "Property Institutions and Economic Behavior," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, March.
    21. Zhang, Lin & Findeis, Jill L., 2010. "Intra-Household Time Allocation and Labor Migration Decisions in Rural South China," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61520, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:apjors:v:7:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s41685-022-00264-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.