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Smoothing destination-specific migration flows

Author

Listed:
  • Sigurd Dyrting

    (Charles Darwin University)

  • Andrew Taylor

    (Charles Darwin University)

Abstract

Accurately estimating age profiles for destination-specific migration is requisite to understanding the determinants of population growth and projecting future change as migration is the primary growth determinant for most regions. In Australia, place-to-place flows based on the age profile of migration derived from census data are commonly used to empirically estimate destination-specific internal migration. However, such flows are heterogeneous and census data is imperfect for accurately generating migration-age profiles. Demographers have addressed this by developing a range of methods for smoothing migration probabilities. These address smoothing on a bi-regional basis, primarily with one destination–origin pairing. We propose a non-parametric method for smoothing destination-specific migration probabilities which can be applied to multi-regional smoothing and is within the generation–distribution framework of Rogers et al. (Environ Plan A 34:341–359, 2002). We demonstrate that, if total age-specific out-migration has already been estimated, smoothing destination-specific migration ratios provides a solution to imperfect input data. Using the example of Australian interstate migration, we show how the method can give an accurate fit to the migration ratio profile across high-curvature ages and a good treatment of sample noise both when the population at risk is low, such as at advanced ages, and when the destination has a low conditional probability of migration. An implementation of the method is available as an Excel add-in.

Suggested Citation

  • Sigurd Dyrting & Andrew Taylor, 2021. "Smoothing destination-specific migration flows," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(2), pages 359-383, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:67:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s00168-021-01051-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-021-01051-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Peters & Andrew Taylor & Dean B. Carson & Huw Brokensha, 2016. "Sources of data for settlement level analyses in sparsely populated areas," Chapters, in: Andrew Taylor & Dean B. Carson & Prescott C. Ensign & Lee Huskey & Rasmus O. Rasmussen & Gertrude Sa (ed.), Settlements at the Edge, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    4. Andrei Rogers & James Raymer & K. Bruce Newbold, 2003. "Reconciling and translating migration data collected over time intervals of differing widths," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(4), pages 581-601, December.
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    8. Sigurd Dyrting, 2020. "Smoothing migration intensities with P-TOPALS," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(55), pages 1607-1650.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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