Population composition, urban neighborhoods, and future scenarios: a crystal ball perspective, from past to future

Racial/ethnic aspects of urban neighborhoods have been a major concern of social scientists post-World War II. As we move into the twenty-first century, however, the object of study is changing dramatically in that the majority US population will soon be minorities; this is already the case in many locales, and other countries are experiencing similar shifts. To recount this dynamic and provide context, the paper begins by considering the US city pre-World War II, ethnic enclaves, and their transition to the present day—giving rise to an immigrant ethos that remains prevalent. Attention then turns to general frameworks related to the immigrant experience, and their future applicability. Considered next is the current state of majoritizing the minority. As one outcome, urban neighborhoods will become demographically diverse and reflect socioeconomic differences rather than racial/ethnic ones; that is, in the jargon of past research, neighborhood composition will be determined by Class more than Culture. This should be largely driven by market forces as mediated by elements such as social networks (formal and informal) and personal preferences. Inertia effects also would operate to slow, but not eliminate, shifts in the urban landscape. Conceptually, these forces are represented by Market-Led Pluralism and Resurgent Ethnicity. Regarding other likely futures, as acculturation occurs a substantial increase in intermarriage is expected, leading to A Blended America. Economic shifts also play into the future as nations of the Global South strengthen, while production in the Global North becomes more automated. Hence, immigration will continue, but from different origins; and the overall level will be lower, leading to A Shrinking Nation.