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Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models with an Application to U.S. Recessions

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  • Richard Startz

Abstract

Binary Autoregressive Moving Average (BARMA) models provide a modeling technology for binary time series analogous to the classic Gaussian ARMA models used for continuous data. BARMA models mitigate the curse of dimensionality found in long lag Markov models and allow for non-Markovian persistence. The autopersistence function (APF) and autopersistence graph (APG) provide analogs to the autocorrelation function and correlogram. Parameters of the BARMA model may be estimated by either maximum likelihood or MCMC methods. Application of the BARMA model to U.S. recession data suggests that a BARMA(2,2) model is superior to traditional Markov models.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Startz, "undated". "Binomial Autoregressive Moving Average Models with an Application to U.S. Recessions," Working Papers UWEC-2006-10-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2006-10-fc
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    Cited by:

    1. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kheifets, Igor & Velasco, Carlos, 2017. "New goodness-of-fit diagnostics for conditional discrete response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 135-149.
    3. Raffaele Mattera, 2023. "Forecasting binary outcomes in soccer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 115-134, June.
    4. Zheng, Tingguo & Xiao, Han & Chen, Rong, 2015. "Generalized ARMA models with martingale difference errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 492-506.
    5. W. K. Li & Guodong Li, 2009. "‘Model selection for generalized linear models with factor‐augmented predictors’," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 237-239, May.
    6. Dunsmuir, William T. M. & Scott, David J., 2015. "The glarma Package for Observation-Driven Time Series Regression of Counts," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 67(i07).
    7. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Tsionas, Mike, 2019. "Ordinal-response GARCH models for transaction data: A forecasting exercise," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1273-1287.
    8. Francesco Lisi & Enrico Edoli, 2018. "Analyzing and Forecasting Zonal Imbalance Signs in the Italian Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 1-20, September.
    9. Harris, Shannon L. & May, Jerrold H. & Vargas, Luis G., 2016. "Predictive analytics model for healthcare planning and scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 121-131.
    10. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
    11. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
    12. Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2012. "Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0170, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    13. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Moysiadis, Theodoros, 2017. "Binary time series models driven by a latent process," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 117-130.
    14. Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014. "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 127-144, February.
    15. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Testing an autoregressive structure in binary time series models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1460-1473.
    16. Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
    17. Stanislav Anatolyev & Natalia Kryzhanovskaya, 2009. "Directional Prediction of Returns under Asymmetric Loss: Direct and Indirect Approaches," Working Papers w0136, New Economic School (NES).
    18. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
    19. Fokianos, Konstantinos & Truquet, Lionel, 2019. "On categorical time series models with covariates," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3446-3462.

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