IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v234y2015i1p3-1510.1007-s10479-014-1727-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discovering the impact of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on credit spread of corporate bond within the framework of intelligent knowledge management

Author

Listed:
  • Rongda Chen
  • Liu Yang
  • Weijin Wang
  • Ling Tang

Abstract

This paper exploits the implied information of data collected from credit spreads of Chinese corporate bonds and systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors. We compute contribution of risk factors to credit spreads of Chinese corporate bonds by establishing the unbalanced panel data model, identify the key factors impacting the size of credit spreads of corporate bonds. Knowledge extracted by data mining is helpful to investors for reasonable pricing of bonds and making rational investment decisions. When selecting variables, the unbalanced panel data model is used to calculate the Zero-volatility credit spreads, which are more accurate. We use term structure adjusted return of bond index as the systemic risk factor of corporate bond market, the three Fama/French systemic factors as the systemic risk factors of stock markets and idiosyncratic stock/bond volatility and idiosyncratic bond value-at-risk as the idiosyncratic risk factors. Empirical analysis of corporate bonds sampling China’s listing Corporation issued and traded on Shanghai Stock Exchange from 2008 to 2011 shows that the size of credit spreads is mainly determined by the systemic risk factors of bond market, i.e. risk factors of stock market make very little contribution to the spread; the idiosyncratic risk factors also contribute. An interesting phenomenon is that we find that the relationship between idiosyncratic stock volatility and credit spread is negative, which is contrary to extant research while the relationship is positive and mainly focuses on impact of risk factors on credit spread of corporate bond. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Rongda Chen & Liu Yang & Weijin Wang & Ling Tang, 2015. "Discovering the impact of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on credit spread of corporate bond within the framework of intelligent knowledge management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 3-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:234:y:2015:i:1:p:3-15:10.1007/s10479-014-1727-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-014-1727-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-014-1727-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-014-1727-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    3. Rosella Castellano & Rita D’Ecclesia, 2013. "CDS volatility: the key signal of credit quality," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 89-107, May.
    4. David Saunders & Costas Xiouros & Stavros Zenios, 2007. "Credit risk optimization using factor models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 49-77, July.
    5. Rudiger Kiesel & William Perraudin & Alex Taylor, 2001. "The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 131, Bank of England.
    6. Gemmill, Gordon & Keswani, Aneel, 2011. "Downside risk and the size of credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2021-2036, August.
    7. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    8. Angie Elkhodiry & Joseph Paradi & Luis Seco, 2011. "Using equity options to imply credit information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 45-73, May.
    9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    12. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    14. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    15. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Siewert, Jan B. & Vonhoff, Volker, 2013. "Credit risk in covered bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 102-120.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    2. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2018. "Rethinking economic capital management through the integrated derivative-based treatment of interest rate and credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 71-100, July.
    3. Yuanxin Liu & FengYun Li & Xinhua Yu & Jiahai Yuan & Dong Zhou, 2018. "Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.
    4. Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Xin & Si, Deng-Kui, 2020. "Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Rong-Xi Zhou & Ya-Hui Xiong & Tian-Hao Liu & Jing Li, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Comparison between Chinese and American Corporate Bonds," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 604-616, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    2. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.
    4. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    5. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    6. Yinghui Chen & Lunan Jiang, 2019. "Liquidity Risk and Corporate Bond Yield Spread: Evidence from China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/9, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    7. Yinghui Chen & Lunan Jiang, 2021. "Liquidity risk and corporate bond yield spread: Evidence from China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1117-1151, December.
    8. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    9. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    10. Zhou, Xinghua & Reesor, R. Mark, 2015. "Misrepresentation and capital structure: Quantifying the impact on corporate debt value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    11. Docherty, Paul & Easton, Steve, 2018. "State-varying illiquidity risk in sovereign bond spreads," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 235-248.
    12. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    13. Jian Luo & Xiaoxia Ye & May Hu, 2016. "Counter-Credit-Risk Yield Spreads: A Puzzle in China's Corporate Bond Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 203-241, June.
    14. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Other publications TiSEM f5164bb2-6597-48c4-8b44-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    17. Gemmill, Gordon & Marra, Miriam, 2019. "Explaining CDS prices with Merton’s model before and after the Lehman default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 93-109.
    18. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    20. Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 49-72.
    21. Park, Keehwan & Ahn, Chang Mo & Kim, Dohyeon & Kim, Saekwon, 2013. "An empirical study of credit spreads in an emerging market: The case of Korea," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 952-966.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:234:y:2015:i:1:p:3-15:10.1007/s10479-014-1727-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.