IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v52y2020ics1062940819302700.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Xiao-Lin
  • Li, Xin
  • Si, Deng-Kui

Abstract

This study utilizes the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014) to quantify the potentially asymmetric transmission of positive and negative changes in each of the possible determinants of industry-level corporate bond credit spreads in China. The determinants we consider include the corresponding industry stock price, China’s stock market volatility, the level and slope of the yield curve (i.e., the interest rate), the industrial production growth rate, and the inflation rate. The empirical results suggest substantial asymmetric effects of these determinants on credit spreads, with the positive changes in the determinants showing larger impacts than the negative changes for most industries we consider. Moreover, the corresponding industry stock prices, the interest rate, and the industrial production growth rate negatively drive the industry credit spreads for many industries. In turn, China’s stock market volatility and the inflation rate positively affect the credit spreads at each industry level. These findings may be helpful to investors, bond issuers and policymakers in understanding the dynamics of credit risks and corporate bond rates at the industry level.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Xiao-Lin & Li, Xin & Si, Deng-Kui, 2020. "Asymmetric determinants of corporate bond credit spreads in China: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819302700
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.101109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940819302700
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2018. "The relation between treasury yields and corporate bond yield spreads in Australia: Evidence from VARs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 186-192.
    4. Georgoutsos, Dimitris & Kounitis, Thomas, 2016. "Treasury yields and credit spread dynamics: A regime-switching approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 39-51.
    5. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.
    6. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
    7. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    8. Rong-Xi Zhou & Ya-Hui Xiong & Tian-Hao Liu & Jing Li, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Comparison between Chinese and American Corporate Bonds," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 604-616.
    9. Kwan, Simon H., 1996. "Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 63-80, January.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    12. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Schaefer, Stephen M. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2008. "Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    15. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    17. Heitor Almeida & Thomas Philippon, 2007. "The Risk‐Adjusted Cost of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2557-2586, December.
    18. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Cooper, Peter & Ahsan, Amirul, 2018. "What determines the Japanese corporate credit spread? A new evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 349-356.
    19. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    20. Jeremy Leake, 2003. "Credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates," Bank of England working papers 202, Bank of England.
    21. Michael Boss & Martin Scheicher, 2002. "The determinants of credit spread changes in the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 181-199, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    24. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    27. Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Rongda Chen & Liu Yang & Weijin Wang & Ling Tang, 2015. "Discovering the impact of systemic and idiosyncratic risk factors on credit spread of corporate bond within the framework of intelligent knowledge management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 3-15, November.
    30. Davies, Andrew, 2008. "Credit spread determinants: An 85 year perspective," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-197, May.
    31. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    32. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    33. Alexander David, 2008. "Inflation Uncertainty, Asset Valuations, and the Credit Spreads Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2487-2534, November.
    34. Rong-Xi Zhou & Ya-Hui Xiong & Tian-Hao Liu & Jing Li, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Comparison between Chinese and American Corporate Bonds," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(5), pages 604-616, May.
    35. Batten, Jonathan A. & Hogan, Warren P., 2003. "Time variation in the credit spreads on Australian Eurobonds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 81-99, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Xiaomeng & Chen, Yinna & Si, Deng-Kui & Jiang, Cun-Yuan, 2024. "How does environmental legislation affect enterprise investment preferences? A quasi-natural experiment based on China's new environmental protection law," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 834-855.
    2. Kejia Yan & Rakesh Gupta & Sama Haddad, 2022. "Statistical Analysis Dow Jones Stock Index—Cumulative Return Gap and Finite Difference Method," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-44, February.
    3. Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Investor sentiment or information content? A simple test for investor sentiment proxies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    2. Jiang, Yong & Liu, Cenjie & Xie, Rui, 2021. "Oil price shocks and credit spread: Structural effect and dynamic spillover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    4. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    5. Ephraim Clark & Selima Baccar, 2018. "Modelling credit spreads with time volatility, skewness, and kurtosis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 431-461, March.
    6. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    7. Pu, Xiaoling & Zhao, Xinlei, 2012. "Correlation in credit risk changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1093-1106.
    8. Su-Lien Lu & Kuo-Jung Lee, 2021. "Investigating the Determinants of Credit Spread Using a Markov Regime-Switching Model: Evidence from Banks in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-25, August.
    9. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2019. "The effects of Brexit on credit spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone corporate bond markets," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 65-102, March.
    10. Samir Kadiric & Arthur Korus, 2018. "Effects of Brexit on Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from UK and Eurozone Corporate Bond Markets," EIIW Discussion paper disbei251, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    11. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    12. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    13. Alena Audzeyeva & Xu Wang, 2023. "Fundamentals, real-time uncertainty and CDS index spreads," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    14. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    15. Hertrich, Markus, 2015. "Does Credit Risk Impact Liquidity Risk? Evidence from Credit Default Swap Markets," MPRA Paper 67837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Leonardo Becchetti & Andrea Carpentieri & Iftekhar Hasan, 2012. "Option†Adjusted Delta Credit Spreads: a Cross†Country Analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 183-217, March.
    17. Jang, Bong-Gyu & Rhee, Yuna & Yoon, Ji Hee, 2016. "Business cycle and credit risk modeling with jump risks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 15-36.
    18. Ramaprasad Bhar & Nedim Handzic, 2011. "A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 105-127, March.
    19. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    20. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate bond; Credit spreads; Credit risk; Asymmetry; NARDL model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819302700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.