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A stochastic programming model for the optimal issuance of government bonds

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  • Andrea Consiglio
  • Alessandro Staino

Abstract

Sovereign states issue fixed and floating securities to fund their public debt. The value of such portfolios strongly depends on the fluctuations of the term structure of interest rates. This is a typical example of planning under uncertainty, where decisions have to be taken on the base of the key stochastic economic factors underneath the model. We propose a multistage stochastic programming model to select portfolios of bonds, where the aim of the decision maker is to minimize the cost of the decision process. At the same time, we bound the conditional Value-at-Risk, a measure of risk which accounts for the losses of the tail distribution. We build an efficient frontier to trade-off the optimal cost versus the conditional Value-at-Risk and analyze the results obtained. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

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  • Andrea Consiglio & Alessandro Staino, 2012. "A stochastic programming model for the optimal issuance of government bonds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 159-172, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:193:y:2012:i:1:p:159-172:10.1007/s10479-010-0755-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-010-0755-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Libo Yin & Liyan Han, 2013. "Options strategies for international portfolios with overall risk management via multi-stage stochastic programming," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 206(1), pages 557-576, July.
    2. Zinan Hu & Ruicheng Yang & Sumuya Borjigin, 2024. "A multistage forecasting model for green bond cost optimization with dynamic corporate risk constraints," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2607-2634, November.
    3. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    4. Christopher Cameron, 2018. "Visualizing Treasury Issuance Strategy," Papers 1802.03376, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.
    5. Balibek, Emre & Memis, Hamdi Alper, 2012. "Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6091, The World Bank.
    6. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    7. Marialena Athanasopoulou & Andrea Consiglio & Aitor Erce & Angel Gavilan & Edmund Moshammer & Stavros A. Zenios, 2019. "Risk Management for Sovereign Debt Financing with Sustainability Conditions," Globalization Institute Working Papers 367, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Maurizio Bovi & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Forecasting macroeconomic fundamentals in economic crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 451-469, December.
    9. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.
    10. Adedoyin Isola Lawal, 2014. "Tactical Assets Allocation: Evidence from the Nigerian Banking Industry," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(2), pages 193-204, April.

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