IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Balibek, Emre
  • Memis, Hamdi Alper

Abstract

Governments raise funds to meet their financing needs using a range of fixed income securities and loans with different maturities, interest rates, and exchange rate structures. Public debt managers need to consider various policy objectives when deciding on the structure of the public liability portfolio. This paper describes a simulation model developed at the Turkish Treasury to assist the decision-making process in debt strategy formulation. The model is used to analyze the medium and long-term consequences of alternative debt management strategies in terms of cost and risk characteristics, and provides key inputs to decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Balibek, Emre & Memis, Hamdi Alper, 2012. "Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6091, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/06/14/000158349_20120614102731/Rendered/PDF/WPS6091.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Bolder, 2002. "Towards a More Complete Debt Strategy Simulation Framework," Staff Working Papers 02-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. David Bolder & Tiago Rubin, 2007. "Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis," Staff Working Papers 07-14, Bank of Canada.
    3. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    4. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    6. Anderson Caputo Silva & Lena Oliveira de Carvalho & Otavio Ladeira de Medeiros, 2010. "Public Debt : The Brazilian Experience," World Bank Publications - Reports 12790, The World Bank Group.
    7. Andrea Consiglio & Alessandro Staino, 2012. "A stochastic programming model for the optimal issuance of government bonds," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 159-172, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    2. Kladívko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Do market participants’ forecasts of financial variables outperform the random-walk benchmark?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    3. Kamil Kladívko & Pär Österholm, 2024. "Analysts versus the random walk in financial forecasting: evidence from the Czech National Bank’s Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(17), pages 2077-2088, April.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    5. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    6. Cai, Lili & Swanson, Norman R., 2011. "In- and out-of-sample specification analysis of spot rate models: Further evidence for the period 1982-2008," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 743-764, September.
    7. Raffaella Giacomini, 2015. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 22-41, June.
    8. Ferdinand Dreher & Johannes Gräb & Thomas Kostka, 2020. "From carry trades to curvy trades," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 758-780, March.
    9. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
    11. Stona, Filipe & Caldeira, João F., 2019. "Do U.S. factors impact the Brazilian yield curve? Evidence from a dynamic factor model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 76-89.
    12. Andrés Sagner, 2011. "El Índice Cartera Vencida como Medida de Riesgo de Crédito: Análisis y Aplicación al Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 618, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Gräb, Johannes & Kostka, Thomas, 2018. "Predicting risk premia in short-term interest rates and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2131, European Central Bank.
    14. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
    15. Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2022. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson–Siegel model under stochastic volatility?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 205-223.
    16. repec:wyi:journl:002064 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Holger Fink & Andreas Fuest & Henry Port, 2018. "The Impact of Sovereign Yield Curve Differentials on Value-at-Risk Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.
    18. Muhammad Yasir & Sitara Afzal & Khalid Latif & Ghulam Mujtaba Chaudhary & Nazish Yameen Malik & Farhan Shahzad & Oh-young Song, 2020. "An Efficient Deep Learning Based Model to Predict Interest Rate Using Twitter Sentiment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Raffaella Giacomini, 2014. "Economic theory and forecasting: lessons from the literature," CeMMAP working papers 41/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2012. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management: Conceptual Issues," IMF Working Papers 2012/241, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tatyana Krivobokova & Göran Kauermann & Theofanis Archontakis, 2006. "Estimating the term structure of interest rates using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 443-459, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory&Research; External Debt; Banks&Banking Reform;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.