IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v168y2009i1p81-9910.1007-s10479-008-0369-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A CA-based epidemic model for HIV/AIDS transmission with heterogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Huiyu Xuan
  • Lida Xu
  • Lu Li

Abstract

The complex dynamics of HIV transmission and subsequent progression to AIDS make the mathematical analysis untraceable and problematic. In this paper, we develop an extended CA simulation model to study the dynamical behaviors of HIV/AIDS transmission. The model incorporates heterogeneity into agents’ behaviors. Agents have various attributes such as infectivity and susceptibility, varying degrees of influence on their neighbors and different mobilities. Additional, we divide the post-infection process of AIDS disease into several sub-stages in order to facilitate the study of the dynamics in different development stages of epidemics. These features make the dynamics more complicated. We find that the epidemic in our model can generally end up in one of the two states: extinction and persistence, which is consistent with other researchers’ work. Higher population density, higher mobility, higher number of infection source, and greater neighborhood are more likely to result in high levels of infections and in persistence. Finally, we show in four-class agent scenario, variation in susceptibility (or infectivity) and various fractions of four classes also complicates the dynamics, and some of the results are contradictory and needed for further research. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Huiyu Xuan & Lida Xu & Lu Li, 2009. "A CA-based epidemic model for HIV/AIDS transmission with heterogeneity," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 81-99, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:168:y:2009:i:1:p:81-99:10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Griffiths, Jeff & Lowrie, Dawn & Williams, Janet, 2000. "An age-structured model for the AIDS epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-14, July.
    2. Roy M. Anderson, 1988. "The Epidemiology of HIV Infection: Variable Incubation Plus Infectious Periods and Heterogeneity in Sexual Activity," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(1), pages 66-93, January.
    3. Ahmed, E. & Agiza, H.N., 1998. "On modeling epidemics Including latency, incubation and variable susceptibility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 347-352.
    4. Benyoussef, A & HafidAllah, N.El & ElKenz, A & Ez-Zahraouy, H & Loulidi, M, 2003. "Dynamics of HIV infection on 2D cellular automata," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 506-520.
    5. Raul Bagni & Roberto Berchi & Pasquale Cariello, 2002. "A Comparison of Simulation Models Applied to Epidemics," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 5(3), pages 1-5.
    6. Fuentes, M.A. & Kuperman, M.N., 1999. "Cellular automata and epidemiological models with spatial dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 471-486.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    2. Huan Cao & Tian Li & Shuxia Li & Tijun Fan, 2017. "An integrated emergency response model for toxic gas release accidents based on cellular automata," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 617-638, August.
    3. Choudhury, Nishat Alam & Ramkumar, M. & Schoenherr, Tobias & Singh, Shalabh, 2023. "The role of operations and supply chain management during epidemics and pandemics: Potential and future research opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pan, Qiuhui & Liu, Rui & He, Mingfeng, 2014. "An epidemic model based on individuals with movement characteristics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 157-162.
    2. Lu Tang & Yiwang Zhou & Lili Wang & Soumik Purkayastha & Leyao Zhang & Jie He & Fei Wang & Peter X.‐K. Song, 2020. "A Review of Multi‐Compartment Infectious Disease Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(2), pages 462-513, August.
    3. Ilnytskyi, Jaroslav & Kozitsky, Yuri & Ilnytskyi, Hryhoriy & Haiduchok, Olena, 2016. "Stationary states and spatial patterning in an SIS epidemiology model with implicit mobility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 36-45.
    4. Frank H. Koch & Denys Yemshanov & Daniel W. McKenney & William D. Smith, 2009. "Evaluating Critical Uncertainty Thresholds in a Spatial Model of Forest Pest Invasion Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1227-1241, September.
    5. Torsten Heinrich, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," Chemnitz Economic Papers 045, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.
    6. Dongya Liu & Xinqi Zheng & Lei Zhang, 2021. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Relationship between COVID-19 Propagation and Regional Economic Development in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, June.
    7. Schimit, P.H.T. & Monteiro, L.H.A., 2012. "On estimating the basic reproduction number in distinct stages of a contagious disease spreading," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 156-160.
    8. Fatima-Zohra Younsi & Ahmed Bounnekar & Djamila Hamdadou & Omar Boussaid, 2019. "Integration of Multiple Regression Model in an Epidemiological Decision Support System," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(06), pages 1755-1783, November.
    9. Douglas K. Owens & Margaret L. Brandeau & Carol H. Sox, 1998. "Effect of Relapse to High-Risk Behavior on the Costs and Benefits of a Program to Screen Women for Human Immunodeficiency Virus," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 52-74, June.
    10. Monteiro, L.H.A. & Sasso, J.B. & Chaui Berlinck, J.G., 2007. "Continuous and discrete approaches to the epidemiology of viral spreading in populations taking into account the delay of incubation time," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 553-557.
    11. F M Smyth & R W Thomas, 1996. "Controlling HIV/AIDS in Ireland: The Implications for Health Policy of Some Epidemic Forecasts," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(1), pages 99-118, January.
    12. Ramos, A.B.M. & Schimit, P.H.T., 2019. "Disease spreading on populations structured by groups," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 265-273.
    13. González, Ramón E.R. & de Figueirêdo, Pedro Hugo & Coutinho, Sérgio, 2013. "Cellular automata approach for the dynamics of HIV infection under antiretroviral therapies: The role of the virus diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4717-4725.
    14. Fu, Bo & Wang, Wenbin & Shi, Xin, 2012. "A risk analysis based on a two-stage delayed diagnosis regression model with application to chronic disease progression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 847-855.
    15. González, Ramón E.R. & Coutinho, Sérgio & Zorzenon dos Santos, Rita Maria & de Figueirêdo, Pedro Hugo, 2013. "Dynamics of the HIV infection under antiretroviral therapy: A cellular automata approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4701-4716.
    16. Ozgur M. Araz & Mayteé Cruz-Aponte & Fernando A. Wilson & Brock W. Hanisch & Ruth S. Margalit, 2022. "An Analytic Framework for Effective Public Health Program Design Using Correctional Facilities," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(1), pages 113-128, January.
    17. François Rebaudo & Olivier Dangles, 2011. "Coupled Information Diffusion–Pest Dynamics Models Predict Delayed Benefits of Farmer Cooperation in Pest Management Programs," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-10, October.
    18. Weiwei Zhang & Shiyong Liu & Nathaniel Osgood & Hongli Zhu & Ying Qian & Peng Jia, 2023. "Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 207-234, January.
    19. Tobias Buchmann & Patrick Wolf & Stefan Fidaschek, 2021. "Stimulating E-Mobility Diffusion in Germany (EMOSIM): An Agent-Based Simulation Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, January.
    20. Bruno Bonté & Jean-Denis Mathias & Raphaël Duboz, 2012. "Moment Approximation of Infection Dynamics in a Population of Moving Hosts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:168:y:2009:i:1:p:81-99:10.1007/s10479-008-0369-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.