IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sls/ipmsls/v25y20131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Neil Baily
  • James Manyika
  • Shalabh Gupta

Abstract

Recent literature has expressed considerable pessimism about the prospects for both productivity and overall economic growth in the U.S. economy, based either on the idea that the pace of innovation has slowed or on concern that innovation today is hurting job growth. While recognizing the problems facing the economy, this paper offers a more optimistic view of both innovation and future growth, a potential return to the innovation and employment-led growth of the 1990s. Technological opportunities remain strong in advanced manufacturing and the energy revolution will spur new investment, not only in energy extraction, but also in the transportation sector and in energy-intensive manufacturing. Education, health care, infrastructure (construction) and government are large sectors of the economy that have lagged behind in productivity growth historically. This is not because of a lack of opportunities for innovation and change but because of a lack of incentives for change and institutional rigidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Neil Baily & James Manyika & Shalabh Gupta, 2013. "U.S. Productivity Growth: An Optimistic Perspective," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 3-12, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.csls.ca/ipm/25/IPM-25-Baily-Manyika-Gupta.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lewis, William W., 2004. "The Power of Productivity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226476766.
    2. Paul Waide & Conrad U. Brunner, 2011. "Energy-Efficiency Policy Opportunities for Electric Motor-Driven Systems," IEA Energy Papers 2011/7, OECD Publishing.
    3. Ricardo de Avillez, 2012. "Sectoral Contributions to Labour Productivity Growth: Does the Choice of Decomposition Formula Matter?," CSLS Research Reports 2012-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Bernanke: Economic Prospects for the Long Run
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2013-05-18 15:14:38
    2. Economic Prospects for the Long Run
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2013-05-19 15:00:47

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    3. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    4. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gilbert CETTE, 2015. "Which Role for ICTs as a Productivity Driver Over the Last Years and the Next Future?," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(100), pages 65-83, 4th quart.
    6. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    7. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    8. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Does ICT Remain a Powerful Engine of Growth," Post-Print hal-01463929, HAL.
    9. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    10. Mr. Roberto Cardarelli & Ms. Lusine Lusinyan, 2015. "U.S. Total Factor Productivity Slowdown: Evidence from the U.S. States," IMF Working Papers 2015/116, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Samuels, Jon D., 2016. "The impact of information technology on postwar US economic growth," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 398-411.
    12. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2017. "Recent US Manufacturing Employment: The Exception that Proves the Rule," Working Paper Series WP17-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide, 2014. "ICTs and time-span in technical efficiency gains. A stochastic frontier approach over a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 55-65.
    14. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Jon D. Samuels, 2017. "Educational Attainment and the Revival of US Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 23-60, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ursel Baumann & Melina Vasardani, 2016. "The slowdown in US productivity growth - what explains it and will it persist?," Working Papers 215, Bank of Greece.
    16. Castiglione, Concetta & Infante, Davide, 2012. "ICTs and lags in technical efficiency gains. A stochastic frontier approach over a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," MPRA Paper 51071, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bortoni, Edson C. & Magalhães, Leonardo P. & Nogueira, Luiz A.H. & Bajay, Sérgio V. & Cassula, Agnelo M., 2020. "An assessment of energy efficient motors application by scenarios evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    3. Andrew Sharpe & Bert Waslander, 2014. "The Impact of the Oil Boom on Canada's Labour Productivity Performance," CSLS Research Reports 2014-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. Paul - Bogdan Zamfir, 2015. "The Stimulation Of Inovation In The Romanian Enterprises On The Coordinates Of Sustainable Development," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 86-89, June.
    5. Ricardo de Avillez, 2014. "A Detailed Analysis of Productivity Trends in the Canadian Forest Products Sector," CSLS Research Reports 2014-01, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. Antón, Arturo & Leal, Julio, 2013. "Aggregate Effects of a Universal Social Insurance Fiscal Reform," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4580, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Steffen Elstner & Lars P. Feld & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2018. "The German Productivity Paradox - Facts and Explanations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7231, CESifo.
    8. Zi-Qiang Zhu & Dawei Liang, 2022. "Perspective of Thermal Analysis and Management for Permanent Magnet Machines, with Particular Reference to Hotspot Temperatures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-51, November.
    9. Ngotran, Duong & Ngo, Tien, 2013. "Retail Sector and Economic Development," MPRA Paper 61590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2014.
    10. repec:een:camaaa:2004-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nebojša Savić, 2012. "Comparative Analysis Based on New Competitiveness Index," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 105-115, March.
    12. Christoph Sejkora & Lisa Kühberger & Fabian Radner & Alexander Trattner & Thomas Kienberger, 2020. "Exergy as Criteria for Efficient Energy Systems—A Spatially Resolved Comparison of the Current Exergy Consumption, the Current Useful Exergy Demand and Renewable Exergy Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-51, February.
    13. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2020. "Structural Change, Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 394-417, June.
    14. Bah, El-hadj & Fang, Lei, 2016. "Entry Costs, Financial Frictions, And Cross-Country Differences In Income And Tfp," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 884-908, June.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Taylor, Josh A. & Dhople, Sairaj V. & Callaway, Duncan S., 2016. "Power systems without fuel," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1322-1336.
    17. Oğuz Mısır & Mehmet Akar, 2022. "Efficiency and Core Loss Map Estimation with Machine Learning Based Multivariate Polynomial Regression Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(19), pages 1-18, October.
    18. F. Knobloch & J. -F. Mercure, 2016. "The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: a general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents," Papers 1603.06888, arXiv.org.
    19. Matt Kellison, 2004. "The McKinsey Global Institute Productivity Studies: Lessons for Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2004-10, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    20. Paramonova, Svetlana & Thollander, Patrik & Ottosson, Mikael, 2015. "Quantifying the extended energy efficiency gap-evidence from Swedish electricity-intensive industries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 472-483.
    21. Juan Manuel Rivas Castillo, 2023. "Evidencias del impacto de la Competencia sobre el Crecimiento Económico de América Latina y el Caribe," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 6(02), pages 13-25.
    22. Gang Lei & Jianguo Zhu & Youguang Guo & Chengcheng Liu & Bo Ma, 2017. "A Review of Design Optimization Methods for Electrical Machines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-31, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sls:ipmsls:v:25:y:2013:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSLS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cslssca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.