IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2023i3p48-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Kelm
  • Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini

Abstract

Różnorodność szoków oddziałujących na inflację cen w Polsce sprawia, że rozstrzygnięcie o roli każdego z nich nie jest możliwe bez wykorzystania właściwych metod analizy ilościowej. W artykule przedstawiono ekonometryczny makromodel cen i płac, w którym wyeksponowano bezpośrednie oddziaływanie na inflację szoków podażowych transmitowanych z rynków surowców energetycznych oraz oddziaływanie tych szoków na sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe. Ze względu na tajność danych o cenach i wolumenów importu gazu ziemnego z Rosji do Polski zaproponowano metodę oszacowania deflatora importu gazu ziemnego na podstawie danych o pozostałych głównych surowcach energetycznych (ropa naftowa i węgiel). Model umożliwia ocenę, w jakim stopniu ceny krajowe (CPI) zależą od tendencji na rynkach światowych (w tym od cen surowców energetycznych), a w jakim stopniu od cen krajowych; możliwe jest oszacowanie wpływu polityki fiskalnej na kształtowanie się cen. Równania modelu są konstruowane przy wykorzystaniu metod kointegracyjnych dla zdezagregowanych indeksów cen konsumenta i cen importu. Własności systemu 19 równań są badane przy wykorzystaniu analizy mnożnikowej. Zaprezentowano wyniki symulacji, w której założono niepodejmowanie działań antykryzysowych w okresie pandemii COVID-19. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują na istotną rolę polityki fiskalnej w kształtowaniu cen.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kelm & Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 48-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2023:i:3:p:48-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gnpje.sgh.waw.pl/pdf-169436-94774
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-666, September.
    2. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
    3. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.
    5. repec:bla:econom:v:53:y:1986:i:210(s):p:s121-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Do High Fuel Prices Pose an Obstacle to Economic Growth? A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-15, September.
    7. Maciej Grodzicki & Michał Możdżeń & Tomasz Surmacz, 2022. "Poland: Policies dealing with the Inflation Crisis," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 48(4), pages 519-544.
    8. Michał Majsterek & Aleksander Welfe, 2012. "Price-wage nexus and the role of a tax system," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 121-133, February.
    9. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    10. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    11. Dudek, Sławomir & Pachucki, Dawid & Zachłod-Jelec, Magdalena & Zając, Tomasz & Kolski, Paweł & Fudała-Poradzińska, Iwona & Danielski, Kamil, 2012. "eMPF Econometric Model of Public Finance," MF Working Papers 14, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 12 Jun 2012.
    12. Grzegorz Przekota & Anna Szczepańska-Przekota, 2022. "Pro-Inflationary Impact of the Oil Market—A Study for Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    14. Bruno, Michael, 1979. "Price and output adjustment : Micro foundations and aggregation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-211, April.
    15. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Oskar Krzesicki & Roza Lewinska & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk, 2009. "An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD," NBP Working Papers 64, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    16. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
    17. Chikako Baba & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2022. "Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook," IMF Working Papers 2022/173, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    2. Robert Kelm, 2016. "Eksport, import i kurs złotego: 2000−2014," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(6), pages 585-620.
    3. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2008. "Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    5. Takamitsu Kurita & B. Nielsen, 2018. "Partial cointegrated vector autoregressive models with structural breaks in deterministic terms," Economics Papers 2018-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    6. Joanna Beza-Bojanowska, 2009. "The Behavioural Zloty/Euro Equilibrium Exchange Rate," NBP Working Papers 55, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    7. Kerry Patterson & Michael A. Thornton, 2013. "A review of econometric concepts and methods for empirical macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 2, pages 4-42, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2019. "Partial Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Breaks in Deterministic Terms," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-35, October.
    9. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    10. Nymoen, Ragnar & Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind, 2012. "Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 253-263.
    11. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2018. "A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1271-1289, November.
    13. Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, 2009. "Behavioral and Permanent Zloty/Euro Equilibrium," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 35-55, March.
    14. Christian Schoder, 2012. "Effective demand, exogenous normal utilization and endogenous capacity in the long run. Evidence from a CVAR analysis for the US," IMK Working Paper 103-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    16. Kuikeu, Oscar, 2011. "Arguments contre la zone franc [Against the cfa franc zone]," MPRA Paper 33710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Katarina Juselius, 2017. "Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-20, July.
    18. Jacek Kotlowski, 2005. "Money and prices in the Polish economy. Seasonal cointegration approach," Working Papers 20, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    19. Gaetano D’Adamo, 2014. "Wage spillovers across sectors in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 523-552, September.
    20. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe; makromodel ekonometryczny; analiza; kointegracyjna; polityka fiskalna; symulacja;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2023:i:3:p:48-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.