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Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook

Author

Listed:
  • Chikako Baba
  • Mr. Jaewoo Lee

Abstract

The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Chikako Baba & Mr. Jaewoo Lee, 2022. "Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks -- Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook," IMF Working Papers 2022/173, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/173
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2023. "The inflation loop is not a myth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    2. Marios C. Polemidiotis, 2024. "Analysis of company profitability in Cyprus: the case of the unit profit metric," Working Papers 2024-1, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    3. Shahzad, Umer & Orsi, Bianca & Sharma, Gagan Deep, 2024. "Managing inflation expectations and the efficiency of monetary policy responses to energy crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Robert Kelm & Izabela Sobiech Pellegrini, 2023. "Import inflacji i sprzężenie płacowo-cenowe w Polsce," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 48-70.
    5. Martin Schneider, 2024. "What contributes to consumer price inflation? A novel decomposition framework with an application to Austria (Martin Schneider)," Working Papers 255, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Magdalena Cornejo & Michelle Hallack & Matias David, 2024. "The Transition to Renewables: Dampening the Impact of Fossil Fuel Price Shocks on Local Inflation," Working Papers 345, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    7. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2024. "The response of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries’ macroeconomic aggregates to crude oil price shocks: some international evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 933-980, December.
    8. Nicholas Apergis, 2024. "Euro area inflation in the era of COVID‐19: A permanent or a transitory phenomenon?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 92(3), pages 231-245, June.

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